Yi Whan-woo is a Korea Times journalist primarily covering finance. He writes in-depth articles on macroeconomy and financial markets and previously covered sports, politics, diplomacy and inter-Korean affairs, among others. Feel free to contact him at yistory@koreatimes.co.kr.
'Unpredictable US diplomacy makes NK denuclearization not feasible'
Former Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun, center, moderates a special session of the KOR-ASIA Forum 2018 co-hosted by The Korea Times and its sister paper the Hankook Ilbo in Seoul, Wednesday. He was joined by former Indonesian Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister Rokhmin Dahuri, left and Timofei Bordachev, right, program director of the Moscow-based think tank the Valdai Club Foundation. / Korea Times photo by Hong In-ki
By Yi Whan-woo
By Yi Whan-woo
The denuclearization of North Korea is unlikely to be realized in the near future because of the “low trust” in U.S. diplomacy that changes from “one day to another” according to a Russian security expert, Wednesday.
Speaking at the KOR-ASIA Forum 2018 co-hosted by The Korea Times and its sister paper the Hankook Ilbo in Seoul, Timofei Bordachev, program director of the Moscow-based think tank the Valdai Club Foundation, also said Russia “was not in a position” to influence the U.S. to lift sanctions on the North.
His remarks came during a special session on security on the Korean Peninsula in relation to President Moon Jae-in's New Northern Policy and New Southern Policy.
While both policies are aimed at shifting away from U.S.-dependent diplomacy, the New Northern Policy focuses on enhancing ties with Russia and Central Asia countries, while the New Southern Policy eyes ASEAN member states and India.
Bordachev and former Indonesian Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister Rokhmin Dahuri were the two panelists in a session moderated by former Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun.
“There's a shared belief in the Russian expert community that denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is unfeasible in the near future,” Bordachev said.
He claimed the Kim Jong-un regime will take into account the cases of other regimes that received no guarantees of survival after giving up their nuclear capabilities.
Bordachev argued the biggest challenge for denuclearization from the Russian perspective was the “low level of American politics.”
“This foreign policy behavior does not give many examples of predictability in relations with those who are not direct or immediate allies of the U.S.,” he said.
“Russia realistically understands this situation is dangerous. But at the same time Russia understands that complete denuclearization will not be possible or feasible in the future, before a very strong international guarantee is given to Pyongyang regarding its survival after denuclearization.”
He called on Washington to offer something that may “be appreciated by the North and support its movement for its own role in denuclearization.”
When asked about Moscow's role in exerting influence on Washington to ease sanctions on Pyongyang, he advised participants “not to overestimate Russian influence and presence” in North Korean affairs.
He said Russian policy on North Korea has been in respect to China as well as the U.N. Security Council (UNSC).
He referred to the joining of both Moscow and Beijing in Washington-led USNC sanctions on Pyongyang.
“Russia has been supporting the Chinese approach and has never tried to position itself as a partner of North Korea … Russia supports all resolutions of the U.N. regarding North Korea,” he said.
At the session they discussed possible competition between Indonesia and North Korea, both rich with natural resources such as minerals.
Former Indonesian Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister Rokhmin Dahuri said he is “never worried” about it.
“There will not be a competition with North Korea over trade. I don't think Indonesia has all the materials that would be needed by South Korea. This could be supplemented by North Korea. And also I don't think North Korea can provide all the materials needed by the South,” he said.
Before the session, Tajikistan's first deputy prime minister delivered a special speech on his country's relations with its neighboring countries.
He said the potential of Tajikistan-South Korea relations “has not been fully unlocked” despite agreements on trade and investment.
He said Tajikistan is keenly interested in President Moon's New Northern Policy, adding “We believe this will be a megaproject to facilitate ties in various sectors such as science, technology, culture and people-to-people exchanges.”