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Lee Seong-hyon

Lee Seong-hyeon is researcher at Sejong Institute, Pantech fellow of Stanford University, senior fellow at the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies at Peking University.

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Lee Seong-hyon

How Xi Jinping scored domestically by playing down his summit with Biden

By Lee Seong-hyon Cambridge, Mass. ― Opinions are divided over the U.S.-China virtual summit held on Nov. 15. Pessimists view that the bilateral conflict and standoff have only become more explicit. Optimists think it was good that both sides chose dialogue over confrontation, by agreeing to hold an overdue summit. My view is that both the U.S. and China met out of their own necessity. For Xi Jinping, the summit was about bolstering his international credentials ahead of his unprecedented third term next year. For Joe Biden, it was about managing voter sentiment ahead of next year's mid-term elections and allying American allies' fears of increasing international disorder. In other words, they needed to take a breather from what Biden called “extreme competition” to attend to their respective needs, while having an opportunity to size up the other side through the summit. However, it was Xi, overall, who took clear advantage of the summit. “A big-power demeanor!” (Daguo fengfan!). This was a one-line summary comment by a Chinese commenter left under a video cl

Nov 23, 2021By Lee Seong-hyon
Lee Seong-hyon

Is Biden team winning narrative competition with China?

By Lee Seong-hyon Cambridge, MA ― On Sept. 14, China's Global Times ran an editorial, titled, "Why the U.S. is afraid to go to war with China?" The title's argument increasingly resonates with many Asians' perspective on the current U.S.-China rivalry. Washington should heed the “audience cost,” if it matters to them. The characterization of Washington being "afraid” in dealing with China, as argued in the Chinese state-controlled media, doesn't help America's standing in the region, if it continues failing to trigger an American response. Washington de facto tolerates China's war rhetoric. But Washington's repeated accommodation of combative language has been slowly eroding America's credibility in the region, particularly when China has been increasingly showing credible willingness to match its harsh rhetoric with actions in the South China Sea or over Taiwan. “Rhetoric,” true to its meaning, is hyperbole. Yet words shape perception. From a vantage point of Asia, where China is located, the U.S. is often seen not credibly establishing itself to confro

Nov 9, 2021By Lee Seong-hyon
Lee Seong-hyon

Chinese perspective on Moon Jae-in: THAAD and inconsistent messaging

By Lee Seong-hyonWith President Moon Jae-in's term winding down, and with Seoul and Beijing's relationship to mark their 30th anniversary next year, now may be an appropriate time to pause and ask some questions about the quality of Moon's diplomatic outreach to China ― from the Chinese perspective.One of the interesting questions is this: Moon is known to be the most “pro-China” South Korean leader in recent decades. Then, why hasn't Chinese leader Xi Jinping attempted a single visit to South Korea during Moon's term, despite Moon's repeated invitations?COVID-19 serves as a convenient diplomatic cover. Both Seoul and Beijing officials often cite it as the primary reason. But interviews with Chinese interlocutors reveal a more nuanced picture. Even during the pandemic period, for instance, Xi has fielded numerous virtual summits with many state leaders. Xi has one scheduled with President Biden next month too. But there are none scheduled with Moon. There have been no announcements of a summit scheduled with Moon in the near future.This situation warrants further probing.

Oct 26, 2021By Lee Seong-hyon
Lee Seong-hyon

Taiwan, tinderbox in the US-China conflict

By Lee Seong-hyonLast year, many South Korean security experts pointed out the two geopolitical hot spots, the South China Sea and Taiwan, as having the largest potential to ignite a military conflagration. This year, they ― without hesitation ― point to Taiwan as their first choice, while sparingly mentioning the South China Sea.The fact that China escalated its latest military tensions with Taiwan ― right before the Zurich meeting between the White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and senior Chinese foreign policy adviser Yang Jiechi ― and deescalated them after the meeting, indicates that, for China, the Taiwan issue is part of its larger strategy in dealing with the United States.China dispatched a record number of warplanes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone in a show of force. In recent weeks, there have been increasing tensions near the Taiwan Strait, with both China and the U.S. conducting more conspicuous military drills than ever. Yet, the uncommonly large-scale Chinese military prowess, is seen by some analysts as China displaying its resolve over T

Oct 12, 2021By Lee Seong-hyon
Lee Seong-hyon

What would God do to Evergrande?

By Lee Seong-hyon Cambridge, MA ― It is a time-honored tactic of China watchers to compare the Chinese Communist Party to Christianity's God for their similarities, such as: their absolute demand for loyalty, their ubiquitous presence and their “all-knowing” ability. The fact that some experts are still debating the eventual fate of China's troubled conglomerate, Evergrande (“hengda” in Chinese), may be an indication that we may have wandered away from the path to God. It's time for China watchers metaphorically to repent and to return to God's way.As of this writing, we are still waiting to find out what will happen to the troubled real estate developer, Evergrande, and its oversized mountain of debt, and more importantly, whether or not the CPC may divinely intervene to save Evergrande from the valley of the shadow of death.Perhaps ― and as always ― the Bible has the answer.The Book of Job, in the Bible, says, "God gave me everything I had, and they were his to take away too." This statement is insightful! According to biblical logic, the CPC gave Evergrande

Sep 28, 2021By Lee Seong-hyon
Lee Seong-hyon

US keeps China in check, China keeps US allies in check

By Lee Seong-hyonCambridge, MA ― China's State Councilor Wang Yi is visiting South Korea this week. To be precise, it is one of the four countries he will be visiting (Vietnam, Cambodia, Singapore, and South Korea). Among them, Vietnam and Singapore were visited by U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris last month, while Cambodia and South Korea were visited by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in June and July, respectively.The visit is seen as a move by China to trace the U.S.'s footprints to recheck the contours of the great diplomatic chess game between the eagle and the dragon. It's like Beijing trying to figure out what kind of strategy Washington has made with these countries against China.In Vietnam, Wang said that China will “focus on the Asia-Pacific and East Asia” in terms of geopolitical importance and will “prevent an external force from impairing ASEAN's central role,” in a thinly veiled reference to the United States.Wang also underscored China's socialist market economy affinity with Vietnam, saying, “The two sides should stick to their

Sep 14, 2021By Lee Seong-hyon
Lee Seong-hyon

America's dilemma with Taiwan

By Lee Seong-hyonThe Global Times, the public opinion warfare tool under Chinese publication People's Daily, is at it again. In an Aug. 16 editorial titled "A Lesson for Taiwanese Authorities to Learn from Afghanistan," it said: "If there is an all-out war in the Taiwan Strait, U.S. reinforcements will not come."The news spread to every corner of the world and caused commotion. Concerns have also arisen in South Korea whether its alliance with the U.S. is strong enough, or South Korea should be prepared for “contingency.” U.S. President Joe Biden hurriedly stepped in, clarifying that South Korea (together with a few other allies) is "fundamentally different” from Afghanistan.Regardless of whether the U.S. will come out to intervene in the event of the Taiwan Strait crisis, China has, in fact, already succeeded in achieving the basic goal of public opinion warfare by making people “agitate.” Even the U.S. president felt compelled to respond.From the U.S. side, it had reason to be indignant toward the Global Times' editorial. It was Biden himself who had d

Aug 31, 2021By Lee Seong-hyon
Lee Seong-hyon

US and China: The more they talk, the more different they realize they are

By Lee Seong-hyonAlthough the U.S. and China are not on good terms, they have not stopped trying to communicate. After Joe Biden took office in January, he was on the phone with Xi Jinping in February ― for two hours! In March, the two sides held a ministerial meeting in Alaska. Although the latter meeting became a crazy TV reality show that revealed U.S.-China discord to the world, in July, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi sat face-to-face in Tianjin, China. Recently, Qing Gang, the new Chinese ambassador to the U.S., has also flown to Washington.Looking at this series of events, some observers commented that the U.S.-China relationship is "hardline in words but (consisting of) compromise in reality." The wording reflects the saying summarizing the U.S.-China relationship during the 20th century, which goes, “If they fight, they will both be harmed, so they will eventually compromise."The reason that this outdated observation, however, cannot be ignored is U.S. officials themselves still characterize the relationship in that way

Aug 17, 2021By Lee Seong-hyon
Lee Seong-hyon

Why didn't US approve of Korean Provisional Government?

By Lee Seong-hyonInside the museum of the Independence Hall of Korea, there is an old photo of men in uniforms, sitting in groups forming the English acronym, "KIA," which stands for the Korea Independence Army. KIA was established on Sept. 17, 1940, in the Chinese city of Chongqing (Chungking), by the Korean Provisional Government (KPG) during the 1910-45 Japanese colonial rule of Korea. Kim Gye-dong, a professor emeritus at Yonsei University who wrote the book, “Division of the Korean Peninsula: Whose Responsibility?” in 2012, shared an interesting story related to the KPG that merits a wider readership for history buffs.During World War II, 28 countries participated in the Allied Forces, and nine of them were provisional governments or governments in exile. The difference between a “provisional government” and a “government in exile” is that a provisional government is a government established temporarily abroad, whereas a government in exile is a government in which the government of a country has been moved overseas. Therefore, the KPG was not

Aug 3, 2021By Lee Seong-hyon
Lee Seong-hyon

Xi Jinping's race against time

By Lee Seong-hyonWhen it comes to analyzing China, there are usually three-level approaches. One is to be mindful of China as a “Communist state” and try to draw any meaningful conclusions from there. The second is to focus on China’s factional politics such as the “Princelings,” or the “Shanghai Gang,” or “Youth League Faction.” The third approach is to look at China’s top leader. The fact that the world, more than ever, now pays attention to Xi Jinping, in our attempt to understand China's behavior, may be an indication of how much power is concentrated in the hands of one single person in the People's Republic of 1.4 billion people.Indeed, the art of understanding China by figuring out Xi is increasingly becoming a mainstay these days, especially in the U.S.-China rivalry context and with China's more assertive behavior at large, including China's controversial “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy.Some view that China's problem is the problem of Xi, who “prematurely” challenged the world's current reignin

Jul 20, 2021By Lee Seong-hyon
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