'AI will dominate economy for decades'
Yuval Noah Harari
The following is the full interview with Yuval Noah Harari, author of the international bestsellers “Sapiens” and ‘Homo Deus.” ― ED.
The cover of Yuval Noah Harari's Homo Deus." A Korean-language version was published last week. / Courtesy of Gimmyoung Publishers
Q: Do you think that President Trump can really attack North Korea due to the Stalinist state’s nuclear threat to the U.S.?
A: Trump certainly has the capability to attack North Korea. Whether he will actually do it _ I don’t know. Nobody knows, not even Trump. One of the characteristics of the Trump administration so far, is that it makes very unexpected moves and abruptly reverses its own policy. Given the unpredictable and impulsive character of both the Trump administration and the Kim regime in North Korea, I am afraid that the danger of violent conflict in the Korean peninsula today is considerably higher than it was before.
Q: AI seems to be the most significant factor in the future competition but Korea lags behind advanced countries in the segment. What do you think the country should do to catch up with AI leaders? If you were the owner of Samsung, the country’s top conglomerate, what you would do to lead the AI competition?
A: I cannot give any practical advice on how to develop an AI industry. I am not an AI expert. However, I can say that AI is likely to be the most important factor in the economic developments of the coming decades. It will change almost every industry and profession, be it transportation, healthcare, education or the military. Human drivers, doctors, teachers and soldiers will increasingly be replaced or augmented with AI.
AI might even begin to replace human artists, as it learns how to detect and manipulate human emotions. We often think that the main business of artists is to reflect or inspire human emotions such as joy, sadness, love or anger. But how do I recognize your emotions? I do so by analyzing external signals such as yours words, your facial expression, and your tone of voice. Computers now learn how to analyze human speech, human facial expressions and human tone of voice, and in some cases they do it better than the average human. By looking at muscle movements and eye movements, a computer can judge whether you are sad or angry.
Yet computers might soon be able to do far more. In the coming decades biometric sensors are likely to become ubiquitous, and a computer connected to such sensors could analyze not just your facial expression and your tone of voice, but also what is happening inside your body. By monitoring your blood pressure, brain activities and countless other biometric data an AI could know whether you feel anger, or sadness or love with far greater accuracy than any human psychologist or artist. Though the AI will not have any emotions of its own, it could learn how to play on human emotions as if they were a keyboard. So even singers, poets, musicians and painters might be replaced or augmented by AI.
When the Industrial Revolution began in the nineteenth century, a few countries such as Britain, France and Japan mastered the new technologies of steam engines, trains and telegraphs. Most countries, such as China, Korea and India, remained far behind. The industrial nations then conquered and exploited everybody else. It took countries such as China, Korea and India almost 150 years to close the gap that opened in the nineteenth century. Now a similar thing is happening with AI and biotechnology. The potential power of AI and biotechnology is far greater than the power of steam engines and the telegraph. A small number of countries are leading the revolution in AI and biotechnology. Most countries remain behind. It is very likely that the countries who master AI and biotechnology will completely dominate the world. This time those left behind will probably never get a chance to close the gap. For the power of AI and biotechnology will make it possible to start engineering and producing bodies, brains and minds. The gap between those who know how to produce bodies, brains and minds and those who don’t know how to do it, is likely to be far bigger than the gap between those who know how to produce a steamship and those who don’t.
*Do you think that Trump’s protectionism would change the world economy?
If Trump adopts a radical protectionist policy it could destabilize not just the global economy, but also the global political system. It is a very dangerous development, because the main problems we face today are all global in nature, and in order to solve them we need effective global cooperation rather than nationalist protectionism. One obvious example is climate change, which threatens the prosperity and even the survival of human civilization. To counter this threat we need global agreements. It won’t be enough if only China reduces greenhouse gas emissions while the United States continues with business as usual, and it is very unlikely that any one country will agree to hamper itself with strict environmental regulations while its economic competitors refuse to do the same.
Another threat we face is disruptive technologies such as AI and bioengineering. A single government cannot do much about the dangers inherent in AI and bioengineering, because science and technology are global rather than national projects. No nation can regulate AI single-handedly. It won’t help much if the EU forbids the production of fully autonomous weapon-systems, as long as the U.S. or Russia allows it. Indeed, because of the immense potential of such disruptive technologies, if even one country takes a high-risk high-gain path, other countries will follow its dangerous lead for fear of being left behind.
Similarly, we need to create a global safety net to protect humans against the economic shocks that AI is likely to cause. Automation will create immense new wealth in hi-tech hubs such as Silicon Valley, while the worst effects will be felt in developing countries such as Honduras and Bangladesh. There will be more jobs to software engineers in California, but fewer jobs to Honduran and Bangladeshi textile workers and truck drivers. Will American governments raise taxes on the hi-tech giants in Silicon Valley in order to support or retrain unemployed Bangladeshis? This is very improbable. We now have a global economy, but politics is still very national. Unless we find solutions on a global level to the disruptions caused by AI, entire countries might collapse, and the resulting chaos, violence and immigration waves will destabilize the entire world.
*Would you say something to Korean readers who long for the publication of the Korean-language version of Home Deus?
I think nowhere are the promises and dangers of 21st century technology clearer than in the Korean Peninsula. During the past decades Koreans have used the same technologies to create radically different societies in the North and South. The South is now a vibrant liberal democracy, while the North is a poor and ruthless dictatorship. The differences between them are so big, that they can be seen even from outer space. A famous satellite image shows the Korean Peninsula at night, with South Korea appearing as a sea of light, while North Korea is enshrouded in darkness. The meeting point of these two radically different societies is among the most explosive fault-lines in the world. The Peninsula totters on the brink of a nuclear war, reminding us of technology’s power to threaten the very existence of our species.
Humankind is now gaining access to even more powerful technology than nuclear energy, but we are not sure what to do with the new technology. In the coming decades we could use genetic engineering, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology to construct either paradise or hell. The benefits of making wise choices will be immeasurable, whereas the cost of unwise decisions may be the elimination of humanity itself. It is up to all of us to choose wisely.
*Do you have a plan to write another book? If so, what it would be about?
Not at present. I have been working very hard in the last two years on Homo Deus, and I need some time to rest.