Lee Hyo-jin covers the Bank of Korea, the banking industry and broader financial news. Her previous beats include foreign affairs, North Korea and general reporting on Korean society.
Cho Kuk's new party rapidly expands presence ahead of elections
Cho Kuk, former justice minister and the leader of the National Innovation Party, visits the Seoul National Cemetery in Dongjak District, Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap
By Lee Hyo-jin
National Innovation Party may win about 10 Assembly seats, observers say
The National Innovation Party, a new liberal party launched by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, is increasing its presence in the lead-up to the April 10 general elections, employing what observers perceive as a clever strategy involving the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK).
At this pace, political analysts anticipate Cho's party to achieve its goal of obtaining at least 10 seats in the 22nd National Assembly.
"Recent polls indicate that the party could enter the Assembly with at least seven to 10 seats under the current semi-mixed member proportional representation system," said Eom Gyeong-yeong, director of political think tank the Zeitgeist Institute, Thursday.
Eom cited the recent poll conducted by Hankook Research at the request of The Korea Times, published Wednesday, which found that 15 percent of 1,002 eligible voters were willing to pick the National Innovation Party in Korea's proportional representation voting system. This marked the third-largest share, trailing behind the ruling People Power Party's (PPP) 29 percent and the DPK's 21 percent.
The proportional representation system allocates seats to a party based on the percentage of votes earned. In the upcoming elections, a total of 46 parliamentary seats are up for grabs.
However, the poll also found that the support rating for Cho's party stood at 5 percent, much lower than the 37 percent and 35 percent for the PPP and DPK, respectively.
The gap between the National Innovation Party's overall support rating and that for proportional representation voting suggests a potential split vote within the DPK's support base, according to political commentator Park Sang-byeong.
"A substantial number of DPK supporters may opt for a DPK candidate in their respective electoral districts while selecting the National Innovation Party in the proportional representation voting," Park said.
"This could secure the party about eight seats," he added.
He explained that the National Innovation Party's mantra of "challenging the Yoon Suk Yeol administration's 'prosecutor dictatorship'" is resonating deeply with many steadfast DPK supporters, especially those in their 40s and 50s, who reside in Seoul and the surrounding regions.
"It's an effective tactic for Cho to align with the DPK," Eom said. "However, the same cannot be said for the DPK, as its satellite party (created for the proportional representation seats) could lose a significant number of ballots to Cho's party."
In particular, a meeting between DPK leader Rep. Lee Jae-myung and Cho on Tuesday has fueled the notion that the two parties are forming an alliance against the Yoon administration, further inclining DPK supporters toward Cho's party.
During the meeting, the two party leaders pledged to collaborate in overcoming what they labeled as the Yoon administration's "prosecutor dictatorship." Cho further stated that his party would embark on bolder campaigns that the DPK might approach cautiously, such as "an early end to the prosecutor tyranny" and "taking first lady Kim Keon Hee to court."
Rep. Lee Jae-myung, left, chairman of the Democratic Party of Korea, speaks during a meeting with National Innovation Party leader Cho Kuk at the National Assembly in Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap
Although the two parties have not officially announced an alliance, after the meeting, Cho's party quickly came up with a campaign catchphrase, "Vote for the DPK in the constituency and vote for the National Innovation Party in the proportional representation."
While speculation is high that Cho's party may erode the DPK's vote in the proportional representation voting system, pundits raised the possibility that the two parties could merge after the elections, given Cho's ongoing legal challenges.
The former justice minister is waiting for a Supreme Court ruling on charges of leveraging influence to secure academic favors for his children and interfering with a corruption case probe.
In February, the Seoul High Court upheld a lower court ruling sentencing him to two years in prison and imposing a fine of 6 million won ($4,500). If the Supreme Court deems him guilty, he may face disqualification from running in elections for the next five years.
"It is unlikely for the top court to issue a verdict within the next 30 days before the general elections take place. However, if he is convicted after securing an Assembly seat, it could significantly affect his future political career," Park said.