ANALYSIS Neither Seoul, Beijing want to further escalate tensions
Main opposition Democratic Party of Korea Chairman Lee Jae-myung, right, talks with Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Xing Haiming at the ambassador's residence in Seoul, June 8. Yonhap
S. Korea advised to maintain 'strategic ambiguity' stance at least regarding Taiwan Strait issue
By Kim Yoo-chul
South Korea's pursuit of balance in its relationship with China and the U.S. was quite consistent throughout the former Moon Jae-in administration, as the former president believed that Beijing could significantly help Seoul improve its ties with Pyongyang ― a top foreign policy priority at the time.
As Moon was determined to mend ties with Beijing, he developed the Three Nos stance ― no additional deployments of the U.S.' terminal high altitude area defense (THAAD) battery missile shield system in South Korea, no participation in a U.S.-led missile defense network and no establishment of a trilateral military cooperative with the U.S. and Japan.
However, the incumbent Yoon Suk Yeol administration is favoring strategic clarity over strategic ambiguity by aligning ever more closely with Washington and Tokyo, in terms of advancing Seoul's regional Indo-Pacific strategy and responding to evolving North Korean nuclear threats.
From a foreign policy standpoint, President Yoon's clear willingness to further strengthen Seoul's alliance with the U.S., and like-minded allies, and to have improved ties with Tokyo despite historical disputes, solidify South Korea's position vis-a-vis North Korea while helping the country to rely less on China's diplomatic largesse.
Because both South Korea and Japan are facing North Korean nuclear threats, the current administration believes deepening cooperation with the U.S. and Japan to mitigate security threats on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia, makes more sense than relying on a not-that-sincere China for help, according to political experts in Seoul.
“As long as the U.S.-China rivalry continues, Beijing doesn't want to see visible progress between the two Koreas because North Korea is viewed, from China's standpoint, as a practical buffer against U.S. allies at China's northeastern border. Also, the incumbent Yoon Suk Yeol administration pushed North Korean issues back to a secondary foreign policy level issue,” an aide to former President Moon, who previously handled Seoul's policies on Beijing, told The Korea Times.
This photo provided by South Korea's Defense Ministry shows an object presumed to be part of North Korea's crashed space-launch vehicle being salvaged by South Korea's military in the West Sea, South Korea, Thursday. North Korea's attempt to put its first spy satellite into space failed on May 31, and has come as a setback to leader Kim Jong-un's push to boost his military capabilities as tensions with the United States and South Korea remain high. AP-Yonhap
“Seoul taking such a security posture makes things quite complicated for top Chinese policymakers as Beijing has long assessed Seoul to be the weakest link of Washington's alliances in Northeast Asia,” according to the former aide who preferred not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.
From China's standpoint, South Korea's closer defense and economic partnership with the U.S. and Japan can lessen its importance to Seoul. Plus, because Seoul has joined a new nuclear planning initiative with Washington, China has concerns that more U.S. strategic military assets will come to South Korea in the event of an actual conflict over Taiwan.
“China doesn't actually care about strengthening alliances between the U.S., South Korea and Japan as long as the alliance is solely focused on Korean Peninsula issues. However, the alliances' focus is broadening toward the Taiwan Strait and Indo-Pacific issues, which China sees as actual security threats,” said Lee Chang-wee, a professor at the University of Seoul Law School.
As chances are low that the Yoon administration will return to a conciliatory approach with China, after more explicitly aligning itself with the U.S. and Japan in confronting China, top Chinese policymakers may have reached a consensus on its position regarding South Korea's inclination toward U.S.-led initiatives.
China blocked mainland access to Naver, South Korea's top web portal. Plus, it slapped millions of dollars of fines on several South Korean banks which have operations in mainland China. Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Xing Haiming, who is fluent in Korean, told the leader of South Korea's main opposition party that Seoul's embracing of U.S.-led policies could bring harm. Plus, Xing clarified China's hope for South Korea to respect its core interests including that of the Taiwan Strait.
President Yoon expressed dissatisfaction at Xing's remarks. While some ruling party lawmakers are asking the government to designate Xing as a persona-non-grata and expel him, however, it is unlikely that Xing will be expelled.
No heavy economic coercion expected
A few years ago, when South Korea decided to deploy the THAAD system, China vehemently opposed the decision claiming that the system posed an actual threat to its own national security. In response, Beijing restricted its outbound tourism to Korea.
Data from the trade ministry showed tourism plunged by more than 40 percent and South Korean consumer goods and cultural products were boycotted in mainland China after the deployment of the THAAD defense system. A lot of South Korean firms have been forced to shut down their businesses there.
The question is: Will China take a retaliatory stance against South Korea again?
In this photo provided by the U.S. Navy, the USS Chung-Hoon observes a Chinese navy ship conducting what it called an unsafe Chinese maneuver in the Taiwan Strait, June 3, in which the Chinese navy ship cut sharply across the path of the American destroyer, forcing the U.S. ship to slow to avoid a collision. AP-Yonhap
Political experts said chances are low that the Chinese government would apply any large-scale trade restrictions, boycotts, tourism restrictions or even administrative restrictions on South Korean firms in China as it did during the THAAD incident. Its next round of coercive diplomacy, if it happens, could cost a lot for Beijing itself given that South Korean tech companies play a significant role in sustaining China's tech industry.
Semiconductors, for example, are at the center of Washington-Beijing disputes. While Chinese President Xi Jinping is heavily pushing to lift his Made in China 2025 policy, its chip self-sufficiency rate last year remained at a tepid 25.61 percent, an estimate by market research firm International Business Strategy, showed.
China aims to increase its chip self-sufficiency rate to 70 percent by 2025. But because that rate includes the production of chips by foreign companies on Chinese soil, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are playing a significant role in terms of keeping Xi's initiative afloat. China didn't punish the South Korean chip duo as it did Micron Technology of the U.S. by banning sales of some of the company's chips in China.
“China's retaliatory measures against South Korean companies after Seoul's agreement to deploy the THAAD system limited its options,” Kim Seong-su, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Hanyang University, said.
“Its overreaction against South Korean companies after THAAD resulted in a deterioration of China's overall image in South Korea. I think China doesn't want to repeat its past experience this time. More importantly, without the help from Samsung and SK, it won't make sense for China to significantly improve its chip self-sufficiency rate.”
Lawmakers at the ruling People Power Party (PPP) stressed that the South Korean government does want to avoid further escalation with China. “The end goal is how to convince China that South Korea's joining of U.S.-led policies is a sovereign action and isn't aimed at hurting China's national security. It's very necessary for the two sides to resume regular high-level communication channels to minimize the risk of a misjudged and unintended collision,” a senior government official said.
Foreign Minister Park Jin told reporters recently that he was hoping to meet Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang on the sidelines of the scheduled Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF) in Indonesia in July.
“Chinese President Xi and his party will move forward with plans to press Taiwan and undercut Washington's influence,” said Kim Jin-ho, a political science professor at Dankook University. “However, these policies don't mean that top Chinese policymakers have no interest to reduce tensions with the U.S. South Korea is asked to maintain a strategic ambiguity stance at least regarding the Taiwan Strait issue because this issue is viewed as an internal matter from Beijing's standpoint, which the U.S. and its allies have no right to interfere in,” he said.
“As China is South Korea's top trading partner, Seoul has to seek a middle ground between Washington and Beijing. I want to highlight Seoul hasn't joined all aspects of the Washington-led economic pressure campaign on China. Amid evolving North Korean nuclear threats, top Seoul officials should say the country's close security ties with the U.S. is more about its national security and isn't more about the country's active support in the Taiwan Strait issue,” Kim added.