ANALYSIS Japan asked to reciprocate after Yoon's concessions
Colleague students march toward for the presidential office during a rally to oppose the visit of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to Japan, in Seoul, March 16, 2023. AP-Yonhap
Japanese politicians should not risk bilateral ties by pursuing short-term political gains
By Kim Yoo-chul
Are relations between South Korea and Japan finally getting back on track?
Not surprisingly, U.S. President Joe Biden hailed President Yoon Suk Yeol's very bold act of statesmanship aimed at normalizing ties with Japan. This came as South Korea announced plans to establish a voluntary private fund with most of the money coming from South Korean firms instead of honoring 2018 ruling by the country's top court, which ordered two Japanese companies to compensate their South Korean victims of forced wartime labor.
The Japanese companies refused to accept the ruling, arguing that the issue had been settled in 1965 when the two countries normalized diplomatic relations. Washington hopes for a Seoul-Tokyo relationship that is unfettered by historical disputes and able to pursue mutual interests in the region. Because of this, the United States was a facilitator, working diligently behind the scenes to help bring this pro-bilateral rapprochement, senior diplomatic sources told The Korea Times.
One notable point is the fact that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida treated President Yoon to a “yoshoku-style” dinner in Tokyo. Yoshoku consists of Japanese-style Western dishes that were brought forth to entertain guests upon first contact with Westerners including Americans during the Meiji era.
The core political meaning behind the Yoon-Kishida dinner at Renga-tei, one of Tokyo's oldest Western-style restaurants established in 1895, is that symbolically the United States was also in the room when the two leaders dined together, according to political analysts in Seoul.
The Biden administration has emphasized the significance of Washington-Seoul-Tokyo trilateral consultations at the highest level to advance progress in the spheres of diplomacy and intelligence coordination. Leading think tanks in Washington stressed that the Biden administration views trilateralism as a tool by which to stabilize the Japan-South Korea relationship and broaden a sense of like-mindedness to better manage a range of common security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.
But the Japanese education ministry's recent approval of textbooks for elementary schools, which defended the right-wing government's position on history and territorial issues by watering down its past wartime crimes, is putting Yoon's own act of statesmanship at risk of failure. A Gallup poll on March 8 and 9 found that about 60 percent of South Koreans opposed Yoon's decision to offer major concessions on legacy issues with 64 percent saying there was no rush to repair Seoul-Tokyo relations unless Japan changes its attitude.
President Yoon Suk Yeol and his wife Kim Keon-hee pose with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his wife Yuko during a formal dinner hosted by Kishida at a Japanese restaurant in Tokyo's Ginza District, March 16, 2023, in this photo released by Japan's Cabinet Public Relations Office. Reuters-Yonhap
The top point of concern is that given the growing furor over Yoon's efforts to improve South Korea-Japan relations, the sustainability of his efforts is now being called into question. This scenario is not good from Washington's standpoint, as Seoul-Tokyo ties will not last without a concerted effort by Japan to reciprocate, said intelligence officials.
“The reality of international politics is changing rapidly and does not wait for South Korea to resolve its historical grievances with Japan. While history remains and the world moves on, this was a wake-up call for the Yoon administration to put the ties with Japan back on track. Yoon must contend with a fierce domestic political backlash, which he seems to have anticipated,” Lee Seong-hyon, a senior fellow at Harvard University's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, told The Korea Times.
Citing 80 percent support for Yoon's unconditional overture toward Japan from international politics experts in South Korea, Lee stressed that South Korea is not exempt from the ongoing complexity of the geopolitical landscape as evidenced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, intensifying U.S.-China competition and rising tension over the Taiwan Strait.
Tokyo should not fold its arms
These somewhat favorable South Korea-Japan relations serve as a ceiling for what could be expected in Washington-Seoul-Tokyo cooperation, so President Yoon's unilateral gesture of goodwill toward key legacy issues is raising the ceiling higher, according to U.S. officials.
But Yoon has to contend with some messy domestic politics as a result of Japan's restrained response to South Korean measures, said Scott A. Snyder, director of the program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Because political polarization in Seoul makes progress with Japan “potentially reversible” under a different South Korean administration, Snyder said, “It is in the best interest of all concerned to have a sustainable rather than a reversible solution to problems between Korea and Japan.”
Lee assessed the heavy criticism of Yoon's controversial approach. “It is a fact that history has not been kind to those who were unable to adapt to the changing times. It is a bit early to judge the full impact of Yoon's detente with Japan, which has three components ― Yoon's visit to Japan, Yoon's April meeting with Biden in Washington and Kishida's subsequent visit to Seoul. Once these have occurred, we can have a fuller picture of what President Yoon has accomplished or not.”
In this photo provided by South Korea Defense Ministry, a U.S. Air Force B-1B bomber, top, flies in formation with South Korea's Air Force F-15K fighters over the South Korea Peninsula during a joint air drill in South Korea, March 3, 2023. AP-Yonhap
From Washington's standpoint, there are a lot of things Seoul and Tokyo can improve through cooperation in areas such as supply chains, health security and development assistance, so Japanese politicians are advised not to act as bystanders while South Korea handles the entire burden of mending Seoul-Tokyo ties.
Experts said Japan should accelerate its efforts to reciprocate and should not treat Yoon's controversial offer of concessions regarding historical feuds as a tool for short-term political gains. The core objective is to repair bilateral ties to handle various security and economic challenges in the Indo-Pacific. Biden said in a statement that normalized Korea-Japan ties will help advance the three countries' “shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
“I would point out that the more corresponding measures Japan offers in advancing its relationship with South Korea, the more sustainable it will be in the face of South Korean public opinion,” said a political analyst in Seoul on condition of anonymity.
Snyder highlighted that both Seoul and Tokyo have a greater stake in stabilizing their relationship than ever before amid North Korea's evolving threats. “The sustainability of such efforts will be subject to future reversals in the absence of acts of statesmanship by both Yoon and Kishida to build a lasting consensus capable of insulating the relationship from domestic political influence in both countries.”
Yoon is set to hold high-profile meetings with the G7 leaders during the G7 Summit in Hiroshima in May, to which Korea is being welcomed as an invited country. Officials at the presidential office in Seoul said the specifics of Yoon's scheduled meetings with G7 leaders will be announced once related formalities are fixed. At the G7 Summit, Kishida is expected to specify his plans to visit South Korea and update his stance regarding historical issues.
“If Japanese companies make their contribution to the establishment of the South Korean government-led voluntary private fund, this may be a positive factor for Yoon as the government has to convince a very skeptical South Korean public,” the anonymous analyst said.
Still, critics say Yoon's plan to pay compensation money from the soon-to-be-established foundation is against the 2018 ruling by the country's top court, as South Korean civil law mandates victims need to agree in order for a third party to compensate. Kishida only reiterated past leaders by expressing a deep apology for his country's wrongdoings during World War II. He has yet to move beyond past statements because of concerns about the backlash he might face from his political supporters.