Anniversary 'Kim wants US recognition as nuclear power'

President Moon Jae-in, center, smiles as U.S. President Donald Trump, left, shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during their meeting at the border village of Panmunjeom in Demilitarized Zone, on June 30. Yonhap

By Do Je-hae

• Published Oct 31, 2019 11:07 AM KST
• Updated Nov 1, 2019 11:07 AM KST

Leading historian on modern Korea assesses S. Korea's role in US-NK talks

By Do Je-hae

President Moon Jae-in will mark the halfway point of his five year presidency on Nov. 9. Cheong Wa Dae has trumpeted Moon's "outcomes" in inter-Korean relations as some of the key achievements of his presidency, but the public assessment of Moon in this regard is turning considerably negative despite his three summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in 2018 and the beginning of unprecedented U.S.-North Korea summit diplomacy.

The South Korean leader's job approval rating has been on a downward trend due to his shortcomings in handling several key domestic affairs, such as the country's economic difficulties and the polarization of Korean society following a corruption scandal surrounding his former justice minister, Cho Kuk. But another major reason that more people are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the President is that his policies regarding North Korea and other key diplomatic challenges, in particular the Korea-Japan historical conflicts, have not been very effective.

Moon has received much criticism for fixating too much on inter-Korean projects, despite Washington's relentless focus on sanctions against North Korea. Kim recently announced his plans to dismantle facilities built by the South at the Mount Geumgang resort, a rare symbol of inter-Korean cooperation. This has been regarded as a negative factor to Cheong Wa Dae as the presidential office still has a plan to invite the North Korean leader to Busan during the Korea-ASEAN summit later this month.

So does this all mean that Moon's efforts for his “peace process,” including denuclearization, a declaration of the end of the war, and permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula, have been in vain?

Bruce Cumings, Gustavus F. and Ann M. Swift distinguished service professor of history at the University of Chicago, said that Moon should be given credit for facilitating the talks between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea.

In June, Moon brought Trump and Kim to the southern side of Panmunjeom for an impromptu meeting, easing the tension between Washington and Pyongyang after the failed U.S.-North Korea summit in Vietnam earlier this year.

“I think he did a great job in bringing Trump and Kim together,” Cumings said during a Korea Times 69th anniversary interview.

“Moon has really been indefatigable in trying to defuse the conflict between Washington and Pyongyang. But there is a limit to how much he can do, because it's really Trump making the basic decisions. Another accomplishment by the President Moon is to sideline Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ― who has not been important to any of the negotiations with the North.”

Significance of summits

Despite no substantial progress in working-level talks between Washington and Pyongyang negotiators in Stockholm, Cheong Wa Dae has continued to emphasize that the entire process of denuclearization talks has not been concluded yet and has expressed its willingness for continuous efforts to establish the “right conditions” for the U.S. and North Korea to resume their negotiations, possibly for another Trump-Kim summit by the end of this year.

Previous Trump-Kim meetings have been mocked as merely a “show.” But Cumings explained that the summits of the foes of the Korean War were important, albeit lacking substance.

“I think they were very important for the two leaders, to finally put an end to the idea that enemies don't talk to each other or meet with each other. The United States has been isolating North Korea since 1945, and there's no evidence that it accomplished anything except to deepen the enmity between the two countries. But there hasn't been much of substance achieved by the two summits ― mainly an informal moratorium on the North's testing of atomic bombs and ICBMs,” he said.

Many people are doubting whether Trump really wants denuclearization. When asked about it, Cumings said, “Of course he would take it if the North offered it, but he knows the incredible preponderance of power that the U.S. holds over North Korea, and perhaps unlike previous presidents, a few A-bombs in the hands of the North are not a big deal for him,” the historian said.

On the other hand, Cumings noted that the North Korean leader has an ulterior motive. “Kim wants the U.S. to recognize the North as a nuclear power, sooner or later. Such a possibility is not far away, because many experts in Washington now seem happy with a freeze on the North's bombs and missiles.”

Concerns are rising that the focus on the talks with North Korea will lose steam with the limited time left in the Moon and Trump administrations. But Cumings said he expected Trump to retain his interest in North Korea if he is reelected. “He loves the publicity and the adulation of getting together with Kim,” the professor added.

Concerns over alliance

Another area that has been considered one of Moon's challenging points is his handling of Korea-U.S. relations. His political opponents have attacked him for undermining the alliance with questionable decisions regarding national security, such as Seoul's ending of General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). Washington has expressed its disappointment in the decision several times and has urged Seoul to reconsider the decision, particularly ahead of the official end of the agreement on Nov. 23.

However, Cumings said that there was really no reason for the U.S. to be concerned about trilateral cooperation following the GSOMIA decision from Seoul.

“This was a relatively new arrangement, and not having it in place before made very little difference. The U.S. has always been the main source of intelligence on North Korea. The primary significance of President Moon's decision is not the loss of intelligence, but the damage it did to Washington's desire to have Tokyo and Seoul work together in a close alliance.”

Another question regarding the alliance that has many Koreans worried is the ongoing negotiations between the two countries about the cost-sharing for U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.

In protest of the “excessive” demand to raise Korea's share, some college students recently broke into the residence of the U.S. Ambassador Harry Harris. The incident was seen as a reflection of the growing concerns among some Koreans on the issue. In a rare move, the Moon administration recently named a former budget expert from the finance ministry to lead the negotiations, rather than following the practice of naming a diplomatic official. Trump has shown a critical view of Korea's current share of the costs for maintaining U.S. troops, saying Korea pays “peanuts” for them. Moon has stressed an “equitable share.”

Cumings advised Seoul to “do nothing and drag its heels waiting for a new president in Washington.”

“That's the best policy. Trump has a fixed idea that none of our allies really pay their fair share for our troops. But South Korea pays a lot to maintain American troops, and the forward basing of these troops is a tremendous American advantage in containing China and North Korea.”

Some Koreans have been increasingly apprehensive that there could be some change to the U.S. troops in Korea during the Trump administration, but Cumings did not agree with such views. “What Trump has done over and over is to announce a troop withdrawal from, say, Syria or Afghanistan, and then turn around and dispatch more troops to those same places. What he could do to underline his criticism of endless wars, is to bring a final end to the oldest of the endless wars, through a peace agreement in Korea,” the historian said.