NK challenges Seoul-Washington-Tokyo alliance
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, left, sits with U.S. President Donald Trump during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Biarritz, southwest France, on Aug. 25. AP-Yonhap
By Kim Yoo-chul
North Korea's continuous provocations are challenging the trilateral military alliance between South Korea, the United States and Japan with Seoul's latest decision ending the intelligence-sharing General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with Tokyo, security experts said, Monday.
Over the weekend, Pyongyang fired two “suspected” short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea. The latest launch is the seventh carried out since the North ended a 17-month hiatus on testing at the end of July, according to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Seoul, Washington and Tokyo are maintaining their “strategic ambiguity” over Pyongyang's missiles in accordance with the hope their “painful patience” would help get the process aimed at dismantling North Korea's nuclear arsenal back on track soon. However, there are “signs of cracks” showing in the trilateral alliance as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe contradicted U.S. President Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in on the North's missile tests.
“With its continued weapons tests, North Korea is raising the price of its cooperation. It will demand benefits not only in denuclearization talks with the United States, but also to reduce its missile threats to South Korea and Japan,” Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said via email.
At their encounter in southwestern France, early Monday (KST), for this year's G7 summit, the U.S. president said although he wasn't happy about the North's latest missile launches, he didn't believe North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was in “violation” of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.
In response, however, Abe countered Trump's version of the North's actions. “North Korea clearly violates the relevant UNSC resolutions,” he said.
Seoul's Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo said in a security forum held in Seoul, Tuesday afternoon, the North's missile firing has “raised tensions” on the Korean Peninsula and complicated the process toward a lasting peace on the peninsula.
But Minister Jeong didn't weigh in on whether or not the missile launches were a breach of UNSC resolutions.
Security experts said while Pyongyang has been deriding President Moon's peace initiatives in its propaganda, peace through flattery doesn't work with North Korea. Therefore, Seoul, Tokyo and Washington are asked to leverage their combined strength.
“A key indicator of progress will be whether Pyongyang engages in negotiations about specific denuclearization steps or rather focuses on arranging another Trump-Kim summit with hopes of winning unearned concessions. Pyongyang's strategy is to increase its military capabilities and then bargain away what it no longer needs in terms of equipment, sites and testing schedules. North Korea seeks military advantage by disrupting U.S.-South Korea alliance cooperation, and financial gain by pressuring Seoul to break international sanctions,” Easley said.
He added international observers often discuss North Korea's need to reform and open. “But Kim Jong-un is proud of his governing system as he sees Beijing struggle with Hong Kong's protests and watches democratic South Korea and Japan battle over history. The Seoul-Tokyo feud will likely embolden Kim to push harder against U.S. alliances when he updates Pyongyang's policies at the Supreme People's Assembly this week.”
In a regular briefing, Monday afternoon, Choi Hyun-soo, a spokesperson at the defense ministry, told reporters the impact of Seoul's decision to terminate its military information-sharing agreement with Tokyo will be short-lived as South Korea has “reliable backchannels” to analyze the specifics of the North's newest missiles, if launched.
“The military intelligence-sharing agreement with Japan, as you know, has been used as a useful tool in sharing some sensitive military information, but we don't think the true value of such information provided by Tokyo is truly valuable and essential in terms of vastly affecting our analysis and assessment,” the ministry spokesperson Choi said.
In a party meeting, the ruling Democratic Party of Korea Chairman Lee Hae-chan also refused to address concerns regarding the trilateral military alliance due to the decision to end GSOMIA.
“The North's launches won't affect South Korea-United States security cooperation. The ruling party will team up with the government in exploring additional ways to level up the Seoul-Washington military alliance,” the DPK chairman told party members.