Moon in 'denuclearization trap'
By Kim Yoo-chul
President Moon Jae-in is seemingly trapped in what some claim is a “denuclearization frame” because the slow progress of North Korea's denuclearization has Seoul's follow-up plans on hold after the Panmunjeom Declaration.
At the core of the issue is Seoul wants to push forward its plans to warm up bilateral cooperation on multiple fronts, while the United States and the international community are asking Pyongyang to take concrete actions before the easing of U.S. and U.N. economic sanctions on the reclusive state.
In a recent meeting with Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington is waiting for “concrete actions” from North Korea before the sanctions can be eased. Minister Kang said an earlier commitment for complete denuclearization agreed by the two Koreas is still intact and added Seoul and Washington will hold them up to that commitment.
“Despite the continued hardline stance towards North Korea, the key task for President Moon is how to win backing from the U.S. and the international community to push or resume projects for better inter-Korean relations. A partial lifting of economic sanctions could create fresh momentum for the South, which I think will be tough to get,” said Hong Soon-jik, chief researcher of the Korea Future Institute at Kookmin University in Seoul.
As the sanctions on North Korea still persist, Seoul is subject to receive approval from the U.N. Security Council before implementing financial strategies discussed.
Such consultations are more time-consuming as the government wants to speed up inter-Korean projects. Experts say if a denuclearization deal can be implemented as planned, North Korea could receive considerable international development assistance to help build its economy, with South Korea likely to lead such an international aid initiative.
“This is a roadmap that President Moon wants,” he said, adding that Minister Kang may have asked her U.S. counterpart to support some humanitarian-centric projects Seoul wants to pursue with Pyongyang.
The two Koreas agreed to resume the reunions for families who were separated after the end of the Korean War, with the next such event to be held next month. Meanwhile, the government hopes to expand its assistance to the North for improved military communication and updated rail network.
“Economic sanctions will impose pain on North Korea, but it is not clear whether it will be sufficient to cause Kim Jong-un to change his mind. Much depends on who within North Korea is hurt by sanctions. Kim will be the last one to suffer from sanctions,” Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korean Studies on U.S.-Korea Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in a recent written interview.
“I support establishing more channels of dialogue with the North Korean leadership, including by South Korea. This will help North Korean leader Kim to realize the risks he is taking and hopefully avoid miscalculation.”
Following the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore, Trump signalled that economic sanctions on North Korea would be lifted once that country has made significant progress with the denuclearization process.
At the conclusion of the Washington-Pyongyang summit, China signalled that some sanctions relief for North Korea should be considered. China imposed its own sanctions on North Korea last year, including financial sanctions, in addition to implementation of U.N. sanctions.
Another challenge facing President Moon is that the path toward a permanent resolution of inter-Korean tensions is fraught with uncertainties and complexities involving other stakeholders.
“In the context of recent gains in North Korea's nuclear capabilities, the specific conditions needed to compel North Korea to give up its nuclear arsenal remain unclear. Moreover, the pledge to carry out disarmament by both Koreas seems unlikely, at least in full, in the absence of more significant trust-building measures,” said Christian de Guzman, vice president at Moody's Investors Service, a global credit ratings agency.