Abe victory shadows Seoul-Tokyo relations

By Kim Hyo-jin

A big victory by Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition in Japan’s snap election is casting a cloud over relations between South Korea and the neighboring country.

Abe will obviously push for a revision to Japan’s so-called pacifist Constitution based on his renewed political momentum; and the militaristic move could complicate bilateral policy cooperation against North Korea’s provocations and resolving historical issues, analysts said Monday.

“Abe must have interpreted this overwhelming victory as being given the authority to push ahead with the constitutional revision, his personal ambition that had been pushed back by a recent corruption scandal,” said Yang Kee-ho, a professor of Japanese studies at Sungkonghoe University.

Yang says the timing could be advanced against this backdrop. “If the revision is realized, the psychological impact will be huge for both South Korea and China, and it could disturb security cooperation in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.”

Abe’s LKP-led coalition won 312 seats in the election Sunday, securing a two-thirds majority in the 465-seat lower house that is enough to revise the Constitution.

He earlier proposed that the war-renouncing Article 9 be amended to include grounds for Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to operate overseas by 2020.

The move is expected to be accelerated as Abe is likely to secure a third three-year term as LDP leader next September.

The North’s provocations and public fears gave Japan’s ruling bloc a much-needed boost in the election.

His hard-line stance toward North Korea will be further strengthened, Yang said, which could trouble smooth coordination with the Moon Jae-in government seeking a two-track North Korea policy of dialogue and sanctions.

“Japan, in close coordination with the U.S., has focused on putting more pressure on North Korea at an international level, while South Korea is openly pursuing more dialogue with the country before it completes its nuclear weapons program,” he said.

“Japan’s hard-line drive could threaten to upset policy coordination between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan.”

Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, pointed out that Abe’s boosted power could leave little room for Seoul and Tokyo to resolve the issue of wartime sexual slavery of Koreans during Japan’s 1910-45 occupation of Korea.

“Japan now has a strong right-wing administration without an opposition powerful enough to check and balance it. That means, when unsolved historical issues are rekindled, they are less likely to seek a compromise.”

The sex slave issue could be further expanded later this month, as UNESCO is expected to decide on whether it will list records of comfort women on its Memory of the World Register.

Civic groups from eight countries, including Korea and China, requested the listing in May last year. The Abe administration has protested the move, threatening to end financial contributions to the body.

Another variable in Seoul-Tokyo ties is how the South Korean government will assess the implementation of the accord reached between the two sides in December 2015 over the sex slaves, the analyst noted.

Seoul’s foreign ministry launched a taskforce to review the agreement in late July, aiming to draw up a conclusion by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Japan’s claim to territorial sovereignty over the Dokdo Islets is expected to remain in its annual defense white paper and history textbooks.