Expert's dire warning: 'Coronavirus infections could surge in autumn'
Oh Myung-don speaks to reporters at the National Medical Center in Seoul, Monday. Yonhap
By Park Si-soo
There could be a surge of coronavirus infections in autumn.
That is the dismal forecast Monday of Oh Myung-don, a renowned infectious diseases physician at Seoul National University Hospital, citing patterns of virus spread observed with the 1918 Spanish flu.
He said a vaccine is the only thing that can derail the scenario but it would take “at least 12 months from now” for one to be ready.
“The first surge (of Spanish flu infections) took place in the spring of 1918 and recurred in the autumn, on a bigger scale that was nearly five times the initial one,” Oh said at the National Medical Center in Seoul. “If this pattern is any guide, it's possible the coronavirus pandemic could break out again in autumn, even bigger in scale.”
He agreed with the widespread belief that the virus would lose strength when temperatures go up but will recover as chilly air blows in with autumn.
He said the opening of schools across the country on April 6 could put what he claims was “quite successful and stable containment of the virus” at risk. A sudden increase of infections among students is possible after schools open, dealing a blow to the painstaking nationwide “social distancing” campaign, he said.
“How far can we delay the opening of schools is a daunting challenge lying ahead,” Oh said. “We are standing at a crossroads of keeping the rigid social distancing in place or letting the guard down a little bit. Whatever the decision, things need to be done in a way offering the best protection of our community.”
He underscored that the ongoing pandemic is a “long-term game” that could continue for more than a year, urging the government to map out countermeasures, especially with regard to development and supply of vaccines, treatments and healthcare materials such as masks and protective gear.
Related discussions for policymaking should be based on factual data and scientific evidence to bring out the full-fledged cooperation of people, Oh said.