Seoul needs to redesign missile defense
N. Korea’s evolving technology makes KAMD ineffective
By Jun Ji-hye
North Korea’s move to deploy a new type of ballistic missile is increasing pressure on the South Korean military to redesign its envisioned missile defense system, scheduled to be completed in the 2020s.
During a test Sunday, Pyongyang successfully launched the missile propelled by a solid-fuel engine using a caterpillar-tracked, transport erector launch (TEL) vehicle, according to the North’s state media, Monday.
The North’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) noted that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who oversaw the launch, approved the mass production and deployment of the new missile.
The use of a solid-fuel engine and new vehicle means North Korea will be able to prepare missile launches in greater secrecy, making it much more difficult to detect, trace and intercept them, compared to a missile propelled by a liquid fuel engine and launched from a wheeled TEL.
Accordingly, the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system, which is currently being developed here with a focus on air defense at lower altitudes, will find it difficult to detect a North Korean missile launch and to shoot it down.
Questions are also being raised about whether a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery that has been deployed in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, is capable of intercepting missiles from the North.
“Calls for introducing ship-based Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors are expected to intensify as a means to strengthen the nation’s air defense at higher altitudes,” a military source said, asking not to be named.
The SM-3 can intercept ballistic missiles at an altitude of 150 to 500 kilometers, much higher than the THAAD’s 40 to 150 kilometers.
The KCNA said the test of a “Pukguksong-2 ground-to-ground medium-to-long range strategic ballistic missile” was perfect, stressing that the launch finally verified all the technical indexes of the new missile.
“Now that its tactical and technical data met the requirements of the Workers’ Party of Korea, this type of missile should be rapidly mass-produced in a serial way to arm the Korean People’s Army Strategic Force,” Kim was quoted as saying.
The North first test-fired the Pukguksong-2, called the KN-15 by the United States, in February after having developed the missile with extended firing range on the basis of successes made in a submarine-launched ballistic missile test last August, during which it used a solid-fuel engine.
Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) also said Monday that the missile is believed to be categorized as a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), modifying its earlier assessment that it was an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).
The MRBM has a range of 2,000 kilometers, while the IRBM can fly more than 3,000 kilometers, though the analysis of missile ranges varies slightly between agencies and institutes.
Once the new missile is operationally deployed, it would put the U.S. bases in Japan, whose troops will be dispatched to the Korean Peninsula in the event of a war, within its range. Some experts say the missile could also put the U.S. bases on Guam in range.
But Col. Roh Jae-cheon, the JCS spokesman, said the new missile would not be able to reach Guam, given that the Pacific island is 3,500 kilometers away from North Korea.
Roh added that South Korea and the United States assessed that the North has earned meaningful results through Sunday’s test, but it still remains to be seen whether the regime in Pyongyang has perfected the re-entry technology necessary to bring a nuclear-armed ballistic missile back into the Earth’s atmosphere.