Scholars See Success, Caution in Summit

WASHINGTON -- The upcoming South Korea-U.S. summit this weekend has already been declared a success, but the two countries still need to deal wisely with high expectations and changes under new administrations, American specialists on Korea said Monday.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will meet U.S. President George W. Bush at Camp David for summit talks on Saturday. He is the country's first leader to be invited to the U.S. presidential retreat in Maryland, a venue usually used to showcase close relations with the invited head of state.

Jack Pritchard, a former North Korea policy coordinator and now head of the Korea Economic Institute, said the invitation is a "seal of approval" from Bush, a message that he is committed to put behind any misgivings about the bilateral alliance.

Evans Revere, president of the New York-based Korea Society, said "victory has been declared."

He added, however, "This issue of managing expectations is critically important here."

Lee took office in February after winning the December election by a large margin, taking his country to the right after 10 years of progressive administrations. His foreign policy centerpieces include improving relations with the U.S. and demanding more reciprocity from North Korea for aid, especially in denuclearization.

Lee's presidency has brought back many figures from previous conservative governments, but South Korea needs to be aware of the changes in the U.S. during the past few years, Revere emphasized.

While the Lee administration's North Korea policy has yet to take shape, the Bush government does have a policy that is vastly different from when the conservatives last were in power in Seoul, he said.

"It's going to be very important for Seoul to understand the different dynamic they are dealing with in Washington today," he said.

Pritchard and Revere are members of New Beginnings, a nonpartisan U.S. policy study group launched jointly by the Korea Society and Stanford University's Walter Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

The group released a report assessing South Korea-U.S. relations and making recommendations to enhance them.

The report, to be updated for the next U.S. president taking office in January, is meant to "ensure that we get this relationship as right as we can," said Revere. "I, for one... don't think that we've seen the best days of this U.S.-South Korea relationship."

The report proposes that Lee and the next U.S. president issue a vision statement that lays out their global partnership and future alliance.

While supporting the transfer of wartime command to South Korea in 2012, the report urged the U.S. administration to respond positively to any request by Seoul to discuss conditions to the transfer and asked Congress to increase the U.S. share of the cost in consolidating American forces based in South Korea.

The group also urged more sensitivity on the U.S. part, saying South Koreans are "increasingly unsettled" by North Korea and an uncertain strategic future, rising China, Japan's re-militarization and Russia's more strident foreign policy.

"Americans need to be sensitive to those concerns and perceptions, even if we do not necessarily share all of them," it said.

The U.S. also needs to understand the profound political impact of Korea's national division, which goes to the heart of people's identity, said the report. "U.S. policymakers must avoid making South Koreans feel forced to choose between their support for the alliance and their national identity."

While Washington needs to treat Seoul more as a major ally and leading global economy, "South Korea, for its part, needs to move beyond lingering feelings of being a victim of foreign powers," it said.

The report pointed to uncertainties about the effect of Seoul's new stance on Pyongyang, including a demand for more reciprocity and linking of aid to the North's denuclearization.

"As of mid-April 2008, it was not clear that the Lee administration had fully thought through how it would deal with a harsh North Korean response to its new policy approach," said the report. "The situation, if prolonged and especially if it worsens, could escalate tension and undermine investor confidence."

The group pressed the Congress to ratify the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement "without further delay" and recommended a new people-to-people exchange program to allow U.S. federal employees to intern in the South Korean government.

Michael Armacost, former U.S. ambassador to Japan, said the FTA ratification could be considerably delayed, more so if it is passed on to the new U.S. administration.

"It isn't so evident to me that this issue is going to be on the top of the new president's priority, especially if it's a Democratic president," he said, adding that it takes time for the new administration to get settled in.

(Yonhap)