Lee Hyo-jin covers the Bank of Korea, the banking industry and broader financial news. Her previous beats include foreign affairs, North Korea and general reporting on Korean society.
Can Korea tackle shrinking military manpower?
Soldiers of the South Korean Army march at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, Sept. 26, during a ceremony to mark the 75th anniversary of Armed Forces Day. Yonhap
By Lee Hyo-jin
Size of nation's armed forces to fall below 400,000 by 2038: report
Concerns about South Korea’s shrinking pool of military conscripts are not new.
The demographic cliff caused by the country’s plunging birthrate – the lowest among OECD member nations – has long been cited as the main cause of a foreseeable plunge in new recruits by the nation's armed forces.
Under current laws, all able-bodied South Korean men aged over 19 are obliged to serve in the military. Women can volunteer to serve in the military as officers or non-commissioned officers.
As of 2022, the number of South Korea’s military personnel stood at 480,000, falling below the 500,000 benchmark for the first time, according to a report published in July by Cho Kwan-ho, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. The figure is about 40 percent of the size of North Korean troops, which is estimated at around 1.14 million.
In his report, Cho predicted that the size of the South Korean military will remain at an average of 470,000 troops over the next 10 years. But he projected the figure to decrease to 396,000 by 2038.
The anticipated decline in military personnel poses serious concerns to South Korea's national security, a country that remains technically at war with North Korea.
To address those concerns, the Military Manpower Administration (MMA) is considering revising measures to expand military conscription to orphans and North Korean defectors, who are currently exempt from mandatory service as they are classified as socially vulnerable groups. If implemented, the MMA estimates around 600 to 700 orphans and 150 to 250 North Korean defectors will be subject to conscription every year.
However, these measures are not enough to resolve the chronic shortage of enlistees, experts said, who called for more drastic solutions.
Men wait for physical checkups prior to military conscription at a branch of the Military Manpower Administration in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province, Feb.1. Joint Press Corps
No panacea
"There is no panacea to the decreasing number of soldiers caused by the demographic crisis," said Kim Yeoul-soo, chief of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs. "In order to address this issue, the government should review various measures ranging from immediate mitigation plans to long-term revisions that require a lot of discussions."
One feasible and relatively easy measure the government can take is to extend the compulsory military service period, he said.
The duration of the military service was initially set at 30 months, but has been reduced to between 18 to 21 months. Under current laws, active duty enlisted personnel should serve 18 months in the Army or Marine Corps, 20 months in the Navy and 21 months in the Air Force.
Kim also said now may be the time to review an existing law that exempts athletes who win an Olympic medal or a gold medal in the Asian Games from mandatory military service, as well as measures allowing draft dodgers, such as conscientious objectors, to perform other forms of national service instead of military conscription.
"I don't want to undermine their contributions to the country, but considering the severity of the current situation regarding our military manpower, I think the government should reconsider the incentives given to those athletes," he said.
The military expert also touched on women's conscription, a subject that often leads to gender conflicts here. People who oppose female conscription say the debate should come only after the male-dominated culture in the military is overhauled and other forms of social discrimination against women are resolved.
"The government should more actively discuss including women in the military service. In some countries like Israel, women have to serve two years in the military and in the reserves until the age of 38," Kim said.
The decades-old debate over women's conscription flared up again recently after the Constitutional Court unanimously upheld the lawfulness of the Military Service Act that subjects only men to conscription.
The ruling, issued in September in response to a petition filed by five men, including current and prospective draftees, viewed that the current law does not breach the right to equality. The court, however, noted that the country may have to seriously consider legislation to conscripting both men and women or shifting to a volunteer military system to tackle the decline in draftees.
Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a think tank, said the military should improve its reward and service conditions to entice more people to enlist.
"Before discussing ways to enlist more young people, the government should first think about why they shun joining the army," he said. "No conscript is happy when he gets called up and almost everyone recalls their time in the military as being a nightmare."
Shin said the military should give more benefits to those deployed in strategic locations compared to those who are stationed in Seoul and the metropolitan areas.
Rep. Sung Il-jong of the ruling People Power Party attends a National Assembly audit session of the South Korean Army held at Gyeryongdae military headquarters in South Chungcheong Province, Oct. 23. Yonhap
Foreigners to the rescue?
Recently, the idea of including foreign nationals in the military was floated by Rep. Sung Il-jong of the ruling People Power Party (PPP). He proposed the measure during a National Assembly audit session of the Military Manpower Administration earlier this month.
“The administration should actively and positively review the idea of allowing healthy, young foreign nationals who pass a Korean language proficiency test to volunteer for military service, and then granting them citizenship,” he told MMA chief Lee Ki-sik.
The lawmaker cited as an example the U.S.'s Military Accessions Vital to the National Interest (MAVNI), a recruiting program that allows certain non-Americans to join the military and apply for citizenship.
Sung said a Korean version of the American military recruiting program, if implemented, would encourage immigrants to feel more pride as members of Korean society.
Kim at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, however, commented that the lawmaker's proposal seems premature as Korea still remains predominantly homogeneous.
“It could be considered as an option in the future, but not immediately. For now, we should think of ways to more effectively utilize the resources we have rather than including foreign nationals in the military, which handles sensitive information,” he said.