Moscow aims to be player in Korean affairs
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Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and North Korean Ambassador to Russia Kim Hyung-joon toast at a ceremony of presentation of credentials in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Nov. 19. / AP-Yonhap
Recent diplomatic reshuffle linked to Russia's Korea ambition: expert
Rhee Tshang-chu Professor of St. Petersburg University
Choe Ryong-hae North Korea’s special envoy to Russia
By Kang Hyun-kyung
In an era of rising power and influence in East Asia, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to miss the good old days of the Cold War when the Soviet Union was a powerful player with significant influence over Korean affairs.
In fact, his desire to strengthen Russia’s role on the peninsula was a key element during recent diplomatic reshuffles in the two Koreas, according to experts. Putin now wants his deputies to lay the groundwork for his ambitious East Asian plans.
The Russian president appointed Alexander Timonin, the Kremlin’s top diplomat to North Korea, to serve as its new ambassador to the South. It has not yet known who will replace Timonin as Russia’s ambassador in Pyongyang.
Russia expert Rhee Tshang-chu says Putin’s diplomatic reshuffle is a strategic decision aimed at helping the world’s largest nation have a strong presence on both sides of the 38th parallel.
“Putin made this decision amid a turbulent shift in the geopolitical landscape in East Asia. This reflects that the Russian leader views North Korea as a very useful card that can help him achieve his foreign policy goals,” Rhee, president of Korea Global Foundation, said.
Quoting an unnamed source, Rhee added that he heard Putin will appoint “an influential figure” to replace Timonin as Russian ambassador to North Korea
In the past, Moscow usually hired from within its deputy director-general officials when choosing its ambassador to North Korea, whereas director-general or deputy minister-level officials were sent to the South as the top diplomat.
Chung Eun-sook, a senior research fellow of the Sejong Institute, agrees with Rhee over Putin’s ambitions on the Korean Peninsula.
Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991, Russia’s influence in North Korea almost disappeared after it cut off its energy supply to the North.
According to Chung, after Putin came to power, he has sought ways to regain Russia’s past glories, while remaining wary of intensifying the U.S.-China rivalry in the region.
“It’s apparent that Putin wants Russia to be as influential as the United States or China on the peninsula, regardless of the feasibility of such expectations,” she says.
Rhee, also adjunct professor of St. Petersburg University in Russia, says Putin’s selection of Timonin as ambassador to South Korea is the right choice because the Russian official knows the two Koreas very well and has sufficient diplomatic acumen.
“Timonin has spent nearly 10 years in Seoul as a Russian diplomat and served as counselor first, then minister counselor and lastly deputy head of mission before he was called to serve in North Korea as ambassador in May 2012,” he said. “He also spent nearly 10 years in the North as he served as counselor and then minister counselor before he assumed the ambassadorial post.”
The Russia expert believes Timonin played a key role in bringing North Korea and Russia together.
“I understand that he was deeply involved in Choe Ryong-hae’s recent visit to Russia where he had an hour-long meeting with Putin and another with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov,” Rhee said.
“North Korea’s Foreign Linister Lee Su-yong visited Russia in October after his trip to the United Nations in September — this was Timonin’s work. The North Korean official’s visit to Russia was rare because he did this while skipping the traditional itinerary, which normally includes Beijing.”
After the meeting with Choe, the Russian foreign minister hinted that a Russia-North Korea summit could happen in the foreseeable future.
In recent years, Russia’s ties with North Korea have expanded to military, trade and other areas.
Lee Yong-hwa, senior researcher of the Hyundai Economic Research Institute, says that North Korea-Russia relations are the closest they have been since the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.
“The two sides need each other and their shared mutual interests seem to have facilitated this relationship,” he said.
Foreign policy observers say the growth of North Korea-Russia ties in recent years is the combined result of the development of South Korea-China relations and the North’s attempt to diversify its foreign relations to end its heavy dependence on China for trade.
Seoul-Beijing relations have grown closer since President Park Geun-hye took office in February 2013. China, meanwhile, has shown signs of distancing itself from North Korea after Xi Jinping took power.
China is sick and tired of North Korea turning a deaf ear to its calls to stop developing their nuclear program, experts say.
In the face of souring Beijing-Pyongyang relations, the North began to look to its Cold War ally Russia, which has become increasingly isolated from the international community after it annexed Crimea in the Ukraine.
Sanctions have subsequently brought North Korea and Russia together.
Feasibility
Presently, there is a large divide between Russia and both the United States and China in terms of trade with the two Koreas and their security partnerships.
Its trade with North Korea is minimal, compared with that of China. North Korea’s trade with China was $7.3 billion in 2013. The figure accounts for nearly 90 percent of the North’s entire trade, whereas bilateral trade between North Korea and Russia makes up only 1.4 percent.
Russia’s insignificant role in the North Korean economy casts doubt over Putin’s ambitions to have a strong presence on the peninsula through North Korea.
How can Russia, which has minimal trade impact on the North, possibly exert influence on the peninsula as much as the United States or China?
Russia’s calculation is that its goals are not a distant dream if Russia can expand its economic partnerships with the two Koreas.
The Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR) and the gas pipeline connecting Russia to South Korea via the North are the two pivotal projects Russia has in mind to make this happen.
Rhee says Russia’s ultimate goal is to develop its impoverished Far Eastern region through these economic projects. The local economy of the Russian Far East will be revitalized if the TSR and the gas pipeline projects are realized, the Russia expert says.
A Sejong Institute report released in July said that if the gas pipeline is built, Russia can sell its natural gas to both South Korea and Japan.
Resource-rich Russia also wants to export coal to China through the 50- kilometer railway connecting the border town of Khasan, Russia, to North Korea’s port city of Rajin.
Russia has invested approximately $250 million to modernize the railway and construct a third wharf in the Rajin port.
However, Putin’s ambition to build a strong Russia in Korean affairs needs the full support of South Korea.
Regarding further economic partnerships with Russia, experts here remain skeptical. Russia is still under international sanction and this makes it difficult for the South to expand economic ties.
Some experts warn of economic and diplomatic risks regarding the gas pipeline project.
Lee at the Hyundai Economic Research Institute says the gas pipeline could cost the South Korean economy, as well as damage its diplomatic relationship with the United States.
He says Russia has used the gas pipeline as a political tool to tame its neighbors by cutting off the gas supply when conflicts of interest arose between the two sides.
“No one can guarantee that such a thing won’t happen on the Korean Peninsula once the sides agree on a pipeline and it is constructed,” he says.
Lee further questioned if South Korea really needs the gas pipeline with Russia.
“Gas prices have gone down following the discovery of shale gas in the United States and Canada. In the face of falling gas prices, I am not sure if we really need a gas pipeline with Russia,” he said.