Number of fertile women expected to keep falling

By Bahk Eun-ji

The number of newborns would not increase even at the rise in birthrate if the number of fertile women keeps falling, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs said Wednesday.

The number of fertile women has been falling since 2010.

According to the institute, an average number of children from one fertile woman during a whole life in Korea stood at 1.3 in 2012, compared with 1.23 in 2010. It hit the lowest point at 1.08 in 2005.

It expects the birthrate to rise, reaching 1.35 in 2020 and 1.42 by 2040. Despite higher birthrates, it predicts the number of newborns will fall from 450,000 in 2020 to 325,000 in 2040, because the number of fertile women would fall.

The number of fertile women aged from 15 to 49 is expected to sharply drop to 8.9 million by 2060 from 13.2 million in 2010.

“If fertility rate keeps declining, we will have fewer economically active people. Policymakers have to take it seriously and analyze the change in population structure to address the problem,” said Lee Seung-uk, a professor of Seoul National University in the report.