I am an editorial writer at The Korea Times, focusing on foreign policy, North Korea and domestic politics. My key areas of interest include North Korea, foreign interference in elections, election integrity, cyberattacks and human rights. Prior to joining the Editorial Board, I served as both Politics Desk editor and Culture Desk editor. During my career, I have reported on the Presidential Office under the Lee Myung-bak administration, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the National Assembly.
Magic voter turnout?
Officials from the National Election Commission hold a sign to encourage voters to cast their ballots on Dec. 19 to select a new president and governor of South Gyeongsang Province on a street in Changwon last Thursday. The sign reads, “You will vote on Dec. 19, won’t you?” / Yonhap
By Kang Hyun-kyung
Polarized voters, turnout, and demographic change are 3 keys to determine winner of today’s election
An early ballot is cast by a voter who was about to take flight at a polling station in Incheon International Airport last Thursday. / Yonhap
By Kang Hyun-kyung
Voter turnouts in previous elections showed that those in their 20s and 30s were not as active as their older counterparts in their 50s or older in voting.
This has led to the popular belief that a low turnout will be a blessing for ruling Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye because she is not popular among young voters but has sweeping support from older ones.
To the contrary, it also suggests that a high turnout will benefit Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP) as he is younger voters’ favorite.
Amid a tight race, the Moon camp last week suggested a 77 percent turnout in the Dec. 19 election was “the magic rate” that would guarantee the lawyer-turned-candidate’s victory.
Supporters of ruling Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye gather at the rally held in front of Daegu Department Store in the southeastern city, holding national flags Thursday. Some of them are wearing red shirts or red gloves. Red is the color of the conservative party. / Yonhap
The ruling camp dismissed this, saying no matter how high the turnout, this won’t change the election landscape featuring Park leading the race because the candidate garners sweeping support from elderly voters.
The heated debate between the two sides on the issue stirs speculation whether there is actually such a thing as a magic voter turnout as the DUP claim.
Pollsters question the credibility of the DUP’s baseline of 77 percent, saying it’s simply too hard to tell if such a turnout would benefit Moon. They were also skeptical about the popular belief that a high turnout will be a blessing for the DUP candidate, saying it’s hard to tell how high a turnout is high enough.
Kim Haing, vice chairwoman of the online news outlet Wikitree, claimed that the significance of turnout was overstated, disagreeing on the idea of a magic rate.
“Turnout matters only when, and if, you have a clear idea of how many votes your candidate and their rival can get in an election. And when you say a high turnout, you can also imagine that not only younger voters, but also more elderly voters would turn up at polling stations to cast their ballots,” she said.
The turnout in presidential elections has continued to fall in every election. This also questions the credibility of the popular belief that a high turnout is a curse for conservative candidate Park.
In 1992, nearly eight out of every ten voters exercised their right to vote. Five years later, the turnout rate fell by 10 percentage points. In the 2007 presidential election, only 63 percent of the electorate exercised their voting rights.
Kim and other pollsters of major polling agencies say three key factors combined are likely to affect the results of today’s election heavily.
The three are polarizing support patterns between younger and older voters; the relative turnout of the former against the latter; and lastly, the demographic characteristic that there are more elderly voters than younger ones.
Turnout predictions
Heo Jin-jae, an executive of Gallup Korea, predicted that the turnout for this election may be 70 percent, saying he drew the rate based on his intuition as a long-time pollster of elections.
He said the 2007 presidential election drew a low turnout because the winner of the election was so apparent from the get-go as Lee Myung-bak who ran on the Grand National Party (now Saenuri Party) ticket had consistently been unrivaled during the campaign season.
“I believe many supporters of the then ruling Democratic Party didn’t vote at the time because they were discouraged from casting their ballots for their favorite Chung Dong-young, because few of them actually thought Chung would achieve a come-from-behind victory,” he said.
Heo predicted that the turnout for the Dec. 19 election will likely be similar to the level of 2002 presidential election. “The question is whether this election will draw a higher rate of voters than the 2002 election did or not,” he said.
In 2002, Roh Moo-hyun, who ran on the then ruling New Millennium Democratic Party ticket, won, defeating conservative candidate Lee Hoi-chang. Voter turnout marked 70.8 percent at that time.
Unlike the 2007 election, Park and Moon are in a tight race, making it difficult to predict who’ll be the winner.
Heo said the tight two-way race and a voter divide between conservatives and liberals will draw more voters to polling stations and as a result the average turnout will go up.
“Since 2002, there has been an increase of 5.5 million of voters. If we do math by applying the turnout rates of age groups in 2002 into this new population for the Dec. 19 election, we can see that the turnout rate will hover at around 72.8 percent,” he said.
If the turnout rate is 70 percent or so, the pollster said it would be hard to conclude which candidate will benefit.
Trend matters
Kim Haing noted that support trends are significant in predicting the winner.
The veteran pollster said the patterns detected by three major polling agencies, namely Gallup, TNS and Media Research, would tell who is more likely to be victorious. Polls released last Tuesday said Park was ahead of Moon by 2 to 4 percentage points, depending on the surveys.
Under the Election Law, pollsters and the media are not allowed to make poll results taken seven days or less before the election public.
“Surveys taken about a week before the presidential election found that approximately 10 percent of respondents were undecided. I believe those who answered they were undecided by that time period are unlikely to vote,” she said.
“When you look at poll results for this election featuring a clear divide between conservative and liberal voters, you need to bear in mind that supporters of a particular candidate never change. For example, those who support Park will never cast their ballot for Moon and vice versa.”
The veteran pollster said supporters of Park and Moon tend to hold their support for their favorite for a time even if they are disappointed with them.
Other pollsters cautioned that there could be a last-minute adjustment in the support trend as negative campaigns could affect some voters’ minds, although this would be minimal as most voters have already decided who they will vote for.
Polarization of turnouts
Previous presidential elections found a polarizing turnout pattern between age groups.
According to the National Election Commission (NEC), the turnout of younger voters in presidential elections held in 2002 and 2007 were lower than the overall rate. In 2002, 56.5 percent of 20-something voters and 67.4 percent of 30-somethings casted their ballots, lower than the average turnout of 70.8 percent.
The presidential election held five years later also found the same pattern. The turnout of voters in their 20s and 30s was 47 percent and 54.9 percent, respectively, lower than the average 63 percent.
To the contrary, older voters’ turnout was higher than the overall rate. In 2002, 83.7 percent of those in their 50s and 78.7 percent of voters in their 60s or older went to polling stations, showing a turnout nearly 13 and 8 percentage points higher than the average.
The same was true in 2007 as the turnout of elderly voters in their 50s and up was 13 percentage points higher than the average.
Coupled with the contrast in voter trends between the age groups, pollsters say the demographic change may help them guess which candidate will be a beneficiary if the same patterns occur today nationwide.
According to the NEC, the population of elderly voters in their 50s or older is higher than that of their younger counterparts in the 20s and 30s combined. The former age group accounts for 40 percent of the electorate, while the latter accounts for 38.2 percent.
Heo said demographic characteristics are in favor of a candidate having wide support from older voters. “As the election watchdog data shows, there are more elderly voters than those who are in their 20s and 30s. And this will benefit the candidate who is popular among the former,” he said.
Polls showed that the support from these age groups for the two major candidates is polarizing. Park is popular among older voters, whereas her rival Moon garners sweeping backing from younger voters. Several surveys released last Tuesday said that Park was ahead of Moon within the margin of error.