I am an editorial writer at The Korea Times, focusing on foreign policy, North Korea and domestic politics. My key areas of interest include North Korea, foreign interference in elections, election integrity, cyberattacks and human rights. Prior to joining the Editorial Board, I served as both Politics Desk editor and Culture Desk editor. During my career, I have reported on the Presidential Office under the Lee Myung-bak administration, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the National Assembly.
Which candidate will benefit most?
Voters’ demographics shift to old at young’s expense
By Kang Hyun-kyung
If the Dec. 19 presidential election is a clash of generations, the older generation would have a better chance of choosing a winner than in the previous poll.
The voter population for the 2012 election shows that the eligible voters in their 20s and 30s combined account for 38.8 percent of the total, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from 2007.
Meanwhile, those in their 50s, or older, number 39.2 percent, an increase of 5.7 percentage points from five years ago.
The demographic change featuring a decrease of younger and an increase of elderly voters will have crucial implications for the race, considering the polarization of voters ahead of the election.
Surveys found the younger generation tends to prefer Ahn Cheol-soo, a software mogul-turned-candidate or Rep. Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP).
Meanwhile, the popularity of Rep. Park Geun-hye of the ruling Saenuri Party is unrivaled among those in their 50s or older. Her ratings are 60 percent or higher in hypothetical two-way races with Ahn or Moon.
Heo Jin-jae, a Gallup pollster, said the turnout of elderly voters is far higher than that of the younger generation.
“Coupled with an increase in older voters, their high turnout rate is a positive sign for Park,” he said. “We need to watch carefully whether or not the younger generation will turn out more in the upcoming presidential election than before. But it’s hardly likely that the turnout of voters in their 20s or 30s will be higher than that of the elderly voters because the latter group’s turnout rate is simply too high, compared with any other age groups.”
The demographic change has generally equalized the number of voters in the two groups.
Considering this, Heo said, a candidate who wins the hearts and minds of 40-something voters will likely be the winner of the presidential race.
“In terms of political orientation, these voters are liberal. You will see this when you look at their voting pattern in the 2002 presidential election,” he said.
Back then, these people, who were then in their 30s, overridingly opted for the late former President Roh Moo-hyun. Nearly six out of 10 voters in their 30s voted for Roh, then the presidential candidate of the liberal Uri Party (now the DUP). Lee Hoi-chang, then the presidential candidate of the Grand National Party (now the Saenuri Party) won merely 30 percent of votes cast.
Now in their 40s, pollster Heo said, these middle-aged voters are more reasonable than voters in any other age group.
“They tend to exercise their right to pick their representative or president based on campaign pledges. They calculate which candidate will offer more attractive policy packages for them because they are affected a lot by policy changes as they are responsible for the family economy. Forty-something voters tend to opt for the candidate from whom they believe they will benefit most,” he said.
Voters in their 40s are portrayed as swing voters as they tend to change their preferred candidate based on benefits, not by political orientation.