Is NK leader’s age a handicap?

By Kim Young-jin

With Kim Jong-un rapidly taking the helm of North Korea, a looming question remains over whether a man thought to be no older than 30 can be mentally equipped to run a nuclear-armed country of 24 million.

While his exact age is not known, Kim ― who became the country’s “Supreme Leader” last month after the death of his father Kim Jong-il ― is markedly younger than most world leaders or the 35 years required to be president of the United States.

Neuroscientists who have weighed in since the junior Kim took power have said that at his age the brain is still developing, including parts of the cortex associated with long-term decision-making.

Though he may wield more influence considering the North’s nuclear weapons program and location at the center of booming Northeast Asia, Kim is not the only leader to take rein of his country at a young age. Among others, there is King Mswati III of Swaziland, who came to power at 18 and has been criticized for amassing great personal wealth while his country remains impoverished; and Bhutanese King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, who is 31.

More concerning than Kim’s age, however, is his apparent lack of experience, says Margaret Hermann, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs at Syracuse University and a specialist on political leadership.

While Kim Jong-il had decades to learn statecraft and burnish his credentials, analysts say Jong-un has only been groomed for about three years. His father is said to have placed figures such as Jang Song-thaek, his powerful brother-in-law and Ri Young-ho, vice marshal of the army, to help secure power.

Hermann said that leaders with little experience under their belt most often rely on lessons learned from their predecessors, which, as in the case of embattled Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, can lead to dubious results.

Like Jong-un, Assad was designated leader with little time to prepare before being thrust into the spotlight. When anti-regime protests erupted a year ago, Hermann noted, he stuck to the violent crackdowns successfully employed by his father Hafez al-Assad. More than 5,000 are estimated to have died in the ongoing strife.

“With less experience, the leader is likely to have a reduced sensitivity to the constraints on what he can do, to be less able to differentiate relevant from irrelevant information, and to be less open to disconfirming information ― data that suggests what he is doing is not working,” she said.

“These characteristics make it difficult to work effectively under stress and keep such leaders wedded to…what they have experienced themselves ― or that of the influential persons surrounding them.”

Korean history is no less fraught for the young leader. While rulers during the Joseon Kingdom were enthroned at an early age, Jong-un’s rise assisted by Jang Song-thaek has reminded some historians of a 1453 coup during the Joseon Dynasty when Prince Suyang took the throne from his young nephew, Danjong.

Analysts suggest the regime will take time to prove the new leader’s toughness and win the respect of party and military elders. This could occur through the North’s propaganda, as in recently-released footage of him attending a 2009 missile test. Behind the scenes, Kim could choose to make an example of an elder by harshly punishing him for a mistake.

Bahng Tae-seop of the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul, however, said most in the regime, including octogenarians who were close to country founder Kim Il-sung, want to maintain the status quo in a bid to ensure their own survival. Still, he said, the young leader has his work cut out for him.

“For a while, he has to show what a strong guy he is,” Bahng said. “But only time can solve the question of his inexperience. If he lasts five or 10 years, then he can accumulate the experience needed to control the country.”