Will eldest son attend funeral service?

Public attention has been focusing on a probable move by Kim Jong-nam, 40, the eldest son of Kim Jong-il who died of physical and mental stress on Dec. 17.

His position is well reflected in the power structure of North Korea as he has been out of his home country even in three days after the North Korean authorities officially announced the death of his father. He is not included in the funeral service committee.

Most of all, public attention is placed on whether he will attend the funeral service slated for Dec. 28. Although he has been ousted from the heir-apparent post, it is probable for him to attend the service as he is the eldest. Younger half-brother Kim Pyong-il, currently ambassador to Finland, and other brothers of Kim Jong-il attended the funeral service of the late Kim Il-sung when he died in 1994. Then, Pyong-il was North Korean ambassador to Finland as a strong political rival of Jong-il during his heir-apparent era.

It is highly probable for Jong-nam to hurriedly leave North Korea without staying long even if he is to attend the funeral service, given the unstable political situation in the North.

Some experts cautiously predict that the eldest son would not get on board a flight bound for Pyongyang. According to intelligence authorities, Jong-nam has not visited Pyongyang since his half brother was named an heir-apparent and instead his wife and children have travelled to the capital. He was apparently out to make quite certain not to agitate heir-apparent Kim Jong-un and his followers during the power transfer, which might create unnecessary misunderstanding against him and risk his personal safety.

Given these circumstances, it can be imagined that his wife and children may attend the funeral. It was reported that Jong-nam’s son, Han-sol, left the international school he is attending in Bosnia on Dec. 16, one day before his grandfather’s death, as the winter vacation started.

It is also predicted that Kim Jong-nam would keep himself aloof from the North Korean leadership later, while staying in China and Macau as he has done so far.

It has been reported that Kim Jong-nam has long emphasized that he had not been interested in power. “I have no interest in who will be heir-apparent and I will not accept the heir-apparent post if asked,” he used to say, often criticizing the closed North Korean society. He wanted to live a free life, abandoning the ambition about power in the North, according to North Korea sources.

In particular, “I have no intention to take over the North father has completely destroyed on grounds that he was the eldest son,” he said in public.

He has been seen as a freer man, speaking out to foreign news media even after Jong-un was named as the heir-apparent, “I have no interest in the heir-apparent issue,“ bewildering the public.

He is worried that he might be a scapegoat of the possible power struggle if he has ambitions in the regime in which his half brother has been building up leadership, according to other North Korea sources.

It is speculated that Jong-nam is a “person guarded” by the conservative military power elite who are making Jong-un a solid successor to the late Kim. “Kim Jong-nam could be a threat to the North Korean military whose power has become greater when Kim Jong-il became ill,” a North Korea expert said. “The military elite might fear that they would lose their vested rights and become those subject to ouster if Kim Jong-nam takes power as he is reform-minded and knows capitalism well.”

Furthermore, Kim Jong-nam has been facing more risk in his security due to the death of his father. It was his father who protected Jong-nam from several attempts by Kim Jong-un and his followers to eliminate him, according to North Korean sources.

However, it cannot be ruled out that there would be a move in the North to enthrone Kim Jong-nam by reformists in the yet-solid power succession to his brother.