KoreaToday Chinas future: Coercive, or benign, or a bit of both?

By Kang Hyun-kyung

The latest Sino-Japan standoff, ignited on Sept. 7 when a Chinese fishing boat collided with Japanese Coast Guard vessels near disputed waters, has left analysts here with a burning question.

Can the ongoing high-tense incident be used as a prism through which to preview China’s future foreign policy?

Amid mixed opinions, many deem the way China has handled the situation could foreshadow how the rising global economic leader will react when facing a conflict of interests with neighboring nations, including South Korea.

The China-Japan row taking place in the disputed maritime territory showed China was fully geared to make the most of all its political and diplomatic muscle and impose trade restrictions, if that was necessary to gain what it wanted.

The speculation comes as tension between Japan and China still remains high even after the release of Zhan Qixiong, the Chinese fishing boat captain, after being held by Japan’s law enforcement authorities after the maritime collision.

China’s foreign ministry subsequently demanded an apology and compensation for what they called Japan’s illegal detention of its citizen.

Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan made it clear that he had no intention of complying with the demands.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said during a news conference held on Monday that Japan will ask China to pay for the damage caused to Japan’s Coast Guard vessels by the Chinese boat.

Analysts described the current Sino-Japan relations as one of the worst strains on bilateral diplomacy in years.

The case has sparked debate here regarding how China is characterizing itself on the global economic stage.

Two faces of China

Observers have portrayed China using two contradicting images –- a power state that attracted neighboring nations with its fascinating culture and influential economic power and then a dictatorial communist state in the 1960s and 70s.

In a speech at the Asia Society Texas Annual Ambassadors’ Forum and Corporate Conference in February 2006, Chan Heng Chee, then Singapore’s ambassador to the United States, compared Sino-Southeast Asia ties during Dynastic China centuries ago with that during the communist regime in the 1960s and 70s.

“The relationship of Dynastic China with Southeast Asia was viewed as benign, distant or one of sheer neglect, and relations between Southeast Asia and Communist China was characterized by mistrust and hostility,” the ambassador said.

“Dynastic China’s relations with Southeast Asia were to a large extent in today’s language, based on soft power... It was China’s economic power and cultural superiority that drew these countries into its orbit and was the magnet for their cultivation of relations.”

The Sino-Southeast Asia relationship under Mao Tse-tung was almost the opposite as communist China wanted to export its revolution to Southeast Asia, she observed.

In a recent commentary, Yukon Huang, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, presented his view on China’s strategy.

“China’s economic objectives dominate its global strategy, but a growing self-confidence will encourage elements within its political security apparatus to become more aggressive in protecting the country’s core interests,” he noted.

Huang pointed out that there is a gap between China and the rest of the world regarding how China’s standing in the global economy is viewed.

“While the West increasingly sees China as a global economic leader, China still sees itself as having a per capita income one tenth that of richer developed countries. The former shapes perspectives outside of China, but the latter drives policies within China,” he noted.

Although China surpassed Japan as the second largest economy in the world, its per capita income hovers at approximately $3,700.

Economists said there are approximately two hundred million poor people there and that this leads decision-makers there to put a priority on economic growth.

“China’s policies are dominated by the desire to sustain the rapid growth needed to bring two hundred million poor into the modern economy. This singular objective puts pressure on commodity markets, drives efforts to increase exports, and puts pressure on environmental safeguards,” Huang said.

Joint gains

In recent years, South Korea and China identified themselves as essential partners as bilateral trade deepened and people-to-people contacts grew.

China has been the number one trade partner to South Korea since 2003, overtaking the United States.

It also became one of the most attractive overseas investment targets for the South. More than 20,000 South Korean firms have invested in China in the past 20 years.

From January to October 2009, South Korea ranked sixth in the list of top countries investing in China reaching roughly $2.261 billion.

South Korea’s cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) in China accounted for 21 percent of China’s total FDI, standing at $29.3 billion as of 2010.

Equally important are the cultural exchanges that have been increasing between the two nations in recent years.

According to the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, 66,806 South Koreans studied in China in 2009, compared to 68,124 South Korean students in the United States.

Seven out of 10 foreign students who are studying in the South (of which the total number reached 75,850 as of 2010) are Chinese.

Also an increasing number of Chinese tourists are visiting South Korea for tourism and shopping.

In the face of expanding trade ties and increasing cultural exchanges, leaders of the two nations agreed to upgrade their diplomatic relations to a so-called strategic cooperation partnership level during the summit held in August, 2008.

A diplomatic thorn

Despite the positive signs, analysts caution that policymakers will need to chart a strategy that will help South Korea sustain the joint gains-based relationship with China in the near future.

North Korea remains a thorn in South Korea’s relations with China as the two nations use different approaches to the common security issue.

China was apparently not in sync with South Korea when the latter brought the Cheonan case to the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) in June.

The UNSC condemned the attack on the warship that killed 46 sailors in the presidential statement but it came short of pinpointing North Korea as responsible for the maritime tragedy.

China, a veto-wielding member and patron of North Korea, reportedly flexed its muscles behind the scenes.

An economist working with the state-run Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) said it would be a daunting task for South Korea to develop a method to cope with a rising China.

“The rise of China in an economic aspect is a positive thing for South Korean firms because the market that they can do business in is growing,” Park Wolla, a research fellow at KIEP, told The Korea Times Monday.

“China’s economic clout will make it politically influential in the region as well as in the global economy. We need to think deeply about how we should deal with the nation in case the Chinese economy grows even more rapidly and its economic structure becomes more sophisticated so that Chinese firms are our competitors.”

China: 중국의 두얼굴

세계 2위의 경제대국으로 성장한 중국은 평화주의 노선을 채택할까, 팽창주의 노선으로 나가게 될까?

중국전문가들은 중국이 패권국가였던 과거에 주변국들을 침범하지 않고 조공무역과 문화적 우월성을 통해 관리했던 평화주의자인 중국과, 1960년대와 70년대 공산주의 중국은 아세안 국가들에게 군사력을 앞세운 공세주의적인 중국이라는 두개의 상반된 이미지를 보여주었다고 분석한다.

중국의 경제적 부상이 현실로 다가온 현재, 중국이 세계 경제의 주도권을 행사할 수도 있는 미래의 중국은 어떤 모습일까?

일본이 중국과 갈등의 진원지로 작용했던 중국인 선장을 석방한 이후에도 양국간 갈등이 계속되고 있다.

중국이 세계2위의 경제대국으로 부상한 직후에 발생한 이 사건의 해석을 두고 다양한 견해가 제시되고 있는 가운데, 미국측 중국전문가는 중국의 세계2위 경제대국에 대한 중국내부와 외부의 평가가 상이하다는 견해를 피력했다.

외부에서 볼 때 중국의 부상이 괄목할 만한 것은 사실이지만, 중국내부에서는 중국이 아직도 1인당 GDP가 3,700 달러에 불과하며, 2억 가까운 인구가 빈곤층이라는 사실에 주목하여 중국의 대외정책이 빈곤층 해소를 위한 경제성장에 초점이 맞춰져 있다고 분석한다.