Will firmer Korea-US partnership hurt China, North Korea?

By Kang Hyun-kyung, Kim Young-jin

Staff reporters

Seoul and Washington agreed to transform the security-oriented alliance into the broadening partnership in regional and global issues in the “2+2” meeting held in Seoul, Wednesday.

The announcement of upgrading the alliance as solid as a rock came at a time when tensions escalated on the Korean peninsula after China addressed strong objections to the joint Korea-U.S. naval exercises.

Asked about the prospects of the bolstered Korea-U.S. alliance on U.S.-China relations, Prof. Chun Chae-sung of Seoul National University said it will be inevitable for China to be wary of the strengthened alliance.

“But China’s concerns will be short-lived as they will know that the deepening ROK-U.S. alliance aimed at deterring threats issued by North Korea, not targeting at China,” Chun told The Korea Times.

“South Korea, however, is faced with the situation where it must draw up the strategy to manage its relations with China.”

The political scientist made the remarks shortly after four chief decision-makers of South Korea and the United States in foreign affairs and defense agreed to bolster deterrence against North Korea, the perpetrator of the attack on the warship Cheonan in March.

Yu Myung-hwan, minister of foreign affairs and trade, and Kim Tae-young, minister of national defense, met with their U.S. counterparts — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Roberts Gates — at the “2+2” meeting held in Seoul.

The four key officials agreed to upgrade the ROK-U.S. alliance into the strong partnership on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War.

The meeting took place at a time when tensions on the Korean peninsula showed few sign of subsiding even after the UN Security Council (UNSC) wrapped up the Cheonan case by releasing the presidential statement denouncing the attack on the warship that killed 46 sailors.

But the UNSC members came short of pointing their fingers at North Korea as a perpetrator of the maritime disaster.

In the wake of the UNSC measure, South Korea and the United States planned to launch a joint naval drill in the West Sea where the warship sank due to the North Korean torpedo attack.

A backlash came from China after the plan was unveiled.

China characterized the joint naval exercises as a provocative maneuver that will likely make the situation on the peninsula worse by aggravating North Korea.

Some Chinese experts observed that the naval drills pose “a serious threat” to China.

In an email interview with The Korea Times, Bonnie Glaser, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies based in Washington D.C., said China is sensitive about the naval exercises near its coastline.

“The Chinese government is vulnerable to criticism from the public that it is not sufficiently defending Chinese territorial integrity and sovereignty, including its EEZ, in the face of U.S. pressure,” Glaser said.

In the face of China’s protests, South Korea and the United States announced a new plan for naval exercises in the East Sea later this month.

Glaser warned of the risk of China’s miscalculation over the decision.

“China could conclude that the United States will back down in the future if it objects strongly to its maritime presence around its borders. This could lead to miscalculation,” she said.

“The principle of freedom of navigation is not something that the United States will compromise on, and this includes the West Sea. The United States will undoubtedly continue to conduct exercises in the West Sea, despite China’s warnings and concerns.”

As for North Korea, the demonstration of solid South Korea-U.S. alliance is expected to bring both a positive and negative effect, Yang Moo-jin, professor at University of Korean Studies in Seoul said. The university is an affiliate think-tank of "Institute of Far Eastern Studies."

``The show of a strong alliance can pressure the north, but whether it will have any real effect is questionable,” said Yang. ``The method of pressuring and censuring is Cold-War strategy.” He said the two allies’ strategy may only pit China, North Korea and Russia together while putting U.S., South Korea and Japan into another group.

He said such a Cold-War situation is not probably what the two Koreas may really want.

``For the two Koreas to obtain real gains, both should aim to get their points across at the six-party talks where denuclearization of North Korea, reducing tension on the Korean Peninsula and founding a peace system can be discussed,” Yang said.