Obama’s Direct Dialogue With N. Korea Won’t Hurt S. Korea
By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
South Korea will flex its muscles in negotiations to end the North Korean nuclear programs as much as it did in previous multilateral talks even if U.S. President-elect Barack Obama seeks direct dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, observed a U.S. scholar.
In an interview with The Korea Times Tuesday, Prof. Charles K. Armstrong of Columbia University said that policymakers in Seoul will not need to be concerned about policy coordination between Seoul and Washington after Obama takes office in January.
``I don't think Obama will go forward unless he has consultation with the South Korean government,'' Armstrong said.
``There will certainly be differences and disagreements, but generally speaking, the Obama administration will follow policy that will be close to that of the South Korean government,'' he said.
Obama's victory has reminded some local foreign policy experts of two possible scenarios regarding North Korea that they've seen before.
They were concerned that possible direct U.S. dialogue with North Korea may leave Seoul watching from the sidelines in the nuclear talks.
Obama's pledge that he would be willing to sit down face-to-face with Kim, if that is what it takes to resolve the continuing nuclear standoff, has spurred this speculation.
Local experts also express worries about a possible policy coordination problem if there are sharp differences between the liberal U.S. President-elect's North Korea vision and that of the conservative South Korean government.
Former President Roh Moo-hyun, the predecessor of President Lee Myung-bak, sought a strong level of engagement with North Korea, while President George W. Bush, especially in his first-term, took a hard-line stance on the nuclear issue ― complete, verifiable, and irreversible disablement (CVID).
No Sharp Differences
Prof. Armstrong forecast that similar problems will not occur between the Lee and Obama administrations after the President-elect takes office.
``I don't think we will return to the sharp differences that we saw between the Roh and Bush administrations,'' he said.
``Now, the situation is reversed. The South Korean government will be more reluctant to engage with North Korea and the (next) U.S. administration will push for direct engagement,'' Armstrong said.
``In fact, the two sides will converge because, generally, the U.S. has been less enthusiastic about engagement. So South Korea's slightly more conservative policy will come closer to U.S. policy,'' he claimed.
Armstrong said, ``So, we are at a very good point that the convergence between the U.S. and South Korean approach to North Korea will take place.''
Armstrong, who has followed Korean affairs for many years, said Washington-Pyongyang direct talks will not hurt South Korea, saying that ``there will be continued policy coordination and consultation between the U.S. and South Korea during the Obama administration.''
He stated that direct dialogue between the United States and North Korea was sensible and would help resolve the nuclear issue and move toward normalizing Pyongyang's relations with the rest of the world.
Smart Engagement
The U.S. presidential election took place at a time when the global financial crisis has dealt a blow to many governments, indicating a shift in the political and economic environment worldwide.
President Lee characterized the meaning of the current crisis as a ``new global economic order being set in place,'' saying it offers a golden opportunity to the Korean economy.
Armstrong advised President Lee to consider several factors when his team designs policy responses to the changing environment.
Among the new factors Lee should keep in mind are smart engagement with North Korea, the decline of the U.S. as a global power and the retreat of unfettered market-oriented globalization worldwide.
The professor said Lee should ensure that Washington and Seoul carefully coordinate policy together.
``President Lee should point out that the U.S. and South Korea must support each other and approach North Korea and take a common, uniform position as much as possible,'' he said.
The professor also put forth a careful examination of what types of engagement will be the most fruitful and successful with Pyongyang and what to expect.
Armstrong called Lee's North Korea approach more realistic than that of his liberal predecessor Roh, arguing that the engagement policy of the previous administration raised expectations much too high.
``North Korea is very difficult to change. We cannot expect it to change very rapidly to a reformist, market-oriented system any time soon,'' he said.
The North Korea expert said people in the South should accept North Korea as it is and not set expectations too high.
``My point is to be patient and keep expectations low. Ultimately, the best thing South Korea can do about unification is to build up the most successful society here and leave aside the question of unification for the time being,'' he said.
``Don't expect it to happen rapidly, don't push too hard,'' he said.
Decline of US
Armstrong observed the current global financial crisis has very important global effects and President Lee should carefully consider them when his team hammers out what Lee called a ``macro-level strategy.''
He said the financial crisis signified the relative decline of the U.S. economy as a global power.
``The first effect is that relatively the top position of the U.S. is going to decline. This is the results of the weak foundation basis of the U.S. economy featuring high debt and excessive dependence on financial products,'' he said.
Armstrong said there is no doubt that the U.S. will be the most powerful and richest country in the years to come and the Korea-U.S. alliance is still important and it's still a vital part of Korea's position in the world.
``But it should be an alliance, which should be of benefit to both sides. And I think South Korea must take into consideration the decline of the U.S. in the years to come,'' he said.
He observed ``the second effect is the shift of economic power away from the U.S. and the west toward other parts of the world, especially Asia.''
``China and Japan are affected and will be affected by the financial crisis but they have the largest foreign reserves and foreign capital. They own U.S, treasury bonds to a great extent. We now see already the shift from the west to a more balanced global distribution of power between Europe and the U.S. on the one hand and Asia and Middle Eastern countries on the other hand,'' he said.
To cope with the shifting global environment effectively, Armstrong claimed Korea should maintain and deepen its relationship with China in a more realistic way.
`Preemptive Policy' Not Magic Bullet
Armstrong observed that the President's policy remedy, which Lee himself called a ``preemptive policy response'' featuring deregulation and tax cuts, is backward.
``The U.S. government has implemented huge government bailout plans and similar things are happening in other parts of the world. But the Korean government has been pretty much free market-oriented,'' he said.
``The absolute free market-oriented globalization is being rejected. Around the world, we are seeing reconsideration of the balance between the government and the market,'' he said.
``On the domestic level, around the world there has been questioning of the free market system. That doesn't mean that people are becoming socialists but the deregulated, complete free market has created serious problems,'' he said.
Armstrong concluded that President Lee will have to alter the direction of his economic policies.