Post-Election Fate of Heavyweights
By Kim Sue-young
Staff Reporter
``To be or not to be, that is the question.''
The 18th National Assembly elections will decide the fate of bigwigs who have been suffering Hamlet's distress.
If the main opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) gains more than 100 out of 299 seats in the Assembly, Co-chairman Sohn Hak-kyu can consolidate his status in the party as a good leader.
Once he wins a parliamentary seat in Jongno district, Seoul, Sohn, who failed to win a party ticket to run in the UDP primaries last year, can emerge as a candidate in the 2011 presidential election.
The worst scenario for him, however, would be that neither he nor his party reached its goal. He would no longer be able to avoid calls for his resignation.
If the party gains about 70 seats, Sohn will likely have a chance to survive but would be dragged into an internal feud over his fate.
A confidant said ``When he began to chair the UDP, party members said they'd be grateful to have about 50 seats, including proportional representation seats. Even if Sohn fails to win in his district, I think he can gain a firmer foothold.''
For unsuccessful presidential candidate Chung Dong-young, the elections are also a crossroad.
Chung, who was defeated in December's presidential race with the largest-ever margin, is running in Seoul's Dongjak precinct, but opinion polls show that he lags behind rival Chung Mong-joon of the governing Grand National Party (GNP).
If he loses the competition, he will have difficulty holding onto power.
Meanwhile, the luck of former GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye depends on how many seats the party can win.
If the party manages to win a parliamentary majority, it may allow defectors, mostly Park's confidants who left the GNP after failing to win a party ticket, to return to the party for more Assembly seats. Park could then have greater clout in the party.
However, if the GNP wins more than 170 seats, it would not need to accept defectors who could weaken her clout.
The party's failure in gaining an absolute majority would also dim her future because she refused to join the party's campaigning, complaining it gave only a few tickets to her confidants.
Five-term lawmaker Chung Mong-joon emerged as a dark horse after he helped President Lee Myung-bak's successful run.
He has enjoyed large popularity in the southern city of Ulsan but he, political experts said, aims at increasing his clout by gaining a parliamentary seat in a Seoul district.
If he defeats former UDP Chairman Chung, he may then see good results in the party convention to pick a leader this summer.