ED Demographic dystopia
Statistics Korea said the nation’s population will fall to 36.2 million in 2072 from the current 51.3 million. And this was only the median estimate. The low estimate says the population might barely exceed 30 million, returning to a similar level from the 1960s.
Koreans might regard the lower projection as the more likely one. The nation has so far been proving the worst-case scenario to be right regarding its demographics.
Korea has various world records courtesy of its demographic changes — the lowest in terms of good indicators and the highest regarding bad ones. The country tops the global list for an aging population, while at the same time hitting rock bottom for birthrate. Korea is the only country with a fertility rate below 1, and its share of people who are 65 and older will be nearly half the population 50 years from now.
Non-Koreans seem even more concerned than Koreans about this country’s possible disappearance from the map. One compared it to the Middle Ages when Europe was swept by the Black Death. Another called Korea a “mass suicide society.” Yet another said Korea “traded joy for a miracle.”
However, Koreans themselves show interest briefly and then forget.
Most are too busy living in the present to worry about the future. Still, political leaders’ silence on this issue of national survival defies the public’s understanding. Especially so because these politicians are most responsible for the current situation. A problem that is set to occur half a century later seems to fail in attracting the interest of large political parties whose foremost concern is the quadrennial elections. If this persists, Korea is doomed to extinction.
Even ordinary Koreans know — and experience daily — the reason for the crisis. In a nutshell, it is the hellish competition that is Korean society. To be included in the top 10 percent, or 1 percent, Korean students must enter one of the best three universities and the most popular departments, like medicine. To do so, they must live in Seoul or its vicinity, where housing prices and living costs are the highest. Decent jobs are increasingly hard to find in Korea’s dual employment structure that mass-produces part-timers and gig economy workers.
President Yoon Suk Yeol was right to prioritize reforming education and labor. However, his approaches were wrong. For instance, he should have called for large companies to ensure better employee work-life balance and incentivized smaller companies to follow suit instead of encouraging people to work more under the pretext of a more flexible labor system.
He also should have focused on strengthening public education, not forcing schools to make entrance exams easier. Cutthroat competition is inevitable in a society that ranks everything, including universities.
No less important is gender equality. Younger people, especially women, are reluctant to marry. In a country that looks down on out-of-wedlock births, fewer marriages will lead to a "baby bust." Korean women, who are just as educated as the men but are expected to do 80 percent of the housework and receive only 60 percent of men’s wages at work, are staging a baby strike of sorts. The country must shed its patriarchal tendencies first to ensure its sustainability.
President Yoon, who partly won the election with anti-feminist rhetoric, should rethink. He must strengthen, not abolish, the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, with a focus on protecting working mothers.
Two more figures show why Korea faces a demographic dystopia. Korea has reportedly spent 280 trillion won ($215 billion) since 2006 to boost its birthrate. However, OECD statistics show the nation’s direct spending on depopulation remains 64 percent of the average of the club of rich countries. Korean workers’ use of maternity or paternity leave is only 17 percent of the OECD average. It seems as though Korea’s figures must be exaggerated, or successive governments spent the money in a wrong and wasteful way.
Yoon must name a senior secretary to be responsible for demographic affairs in the presidential office and set up a quasi-ministry under the prime minister. The whole government — and nation — must tackle this issue.
Despite a far larger population and a higher birthrate than Korea’s, Japan launched the “100 million active Japanese” project in 2015.
Experts say the next 10 years will be the final “golden moment” for Korea to stop or at least slow its demographic downfall. The nation must declare 2024 the first year for the “50 million Koreans” project.