ED Extended nuclear deterrence
North Korea fired what is presumed to be a long-range missile into the East Sea on Monday, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said. If confirmed, it would be the fifth inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch this year. The North’s launch of the suspected ICBM, although long anticipated, will likely further heighten regional tensions, prompting tougher retaliatory measures from the allies.
The North’s provocation came just after South Korea and the United States held the second Nuclear Consultative Group (NSG) meeting in Washington D.C. Friday (local time). They agreed to map out a joint guideline regarding the planning and operation of nuclear forces by mid-2024. They also agreed to carry out joint military exercises under the scenario of a possible nuclear attack from the North.
Fresh from the meeting, South Korea’s First Deputy National Security Advisor Kim Tae-hyo said the newly agreed steps will be applied from the Ulchi Freedom Shield joint drills slated for next year. Under contingency circumstances, the heads of the two countries will hold talks immediately via a hotline and will be equipped with necessary portable devices, Kim said. The participants in the NCG meeting also discussed ways of forming a separate consultative body attended by Japanese representatives.
North Korea has continued to escalate military tensions on the Korean Peninsula by persistently building up its missile and nuclear capabilities. It has threatened to target the South with its own tactical nuclear weapons since last year, conducting military exercises to back up its rhetoric. While fortifying military cooperation with Russia, it launched a military surveillance satellite. Against this backdrop, it has become essential for South Korea and the U.S. to take diverse measures designed to extend deterrence abilities and prevent a potential nuclear war.
In a related context, a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine arrived in South Korea on Sunday. The Navy said the USS Missouri, a Virginia-class attack submarine docked at a naval base in Busan. The Navy expressed hopes that deploying the submarine would help reinforce the combined defense posture with the U.S. while bolstering naval cooperation and exchanges between the two allies.
The United States has underlined the concept of a nuclear umbrella featuring counterattacks for allies when they become vulnerable to nuclear attacks. But it has maintained that the U.S. president has the sole authority regarding the possible use of such an umbrella. Even under the concept of nuclear sharing with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries, the non-nuclear states of Europe are supposed to provide the U.S. with only fighter jets, while the U.S. president is given exclusive rights over the use of nuclear weapons.
The current NCG agreement does not necessarily mean the possible mutual use of nuclear weapons by the two sides. It signifies a more proactive participation by South Korea in a potential nuclear war in case the U.S. attempts a counteroffensive against a North Korean nuclear attack. Yet it is certain that South Korea’s anti-nuclear posture will be further boosted through joint military exercises combining the U.S. deployment of tactical nuclear assets paired with the conventional military prowess of the South's Armed Forces.
However, it is improper for the Yoon Suk Yeol administration to excessively resort to the U.S. umbrella and extended deterrence. Concerns have been growing that Washington's umbrella pledge and the South Korea-U.S. alliance will be undermined should Donald Trump win the next U.S. presidential election. During his first presidency, Trump threatened to withdraw U.S. forces from South Korea.
Only emphasizing the need to build up preemptive attacks against the North will only nudge Pyongyang to strengthen its nuclear prowess, thus heightening the possibility of a war on the peninsula. Strengthening nuclear deterrence based on the U.S.-South Korea alliance should also seek diplomatic approaches to ease nuclear threats and military tensions. Improving ties with China will be one of the key solutions toward that end.