Better missile capabilities
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As far as missiles are concerned, South Korea is no match for North Korea. Seoul is currently banned from developing or possessing missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers and a payload of over 500 kilograms. The ban stems from a Seoul-Washington pact based on the global Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).
Amid mounting tension on the Korean Peninsula due to the North’s repeated provocations, the South is seeking to revise the bilateral accord to develop missiles with an extended range. The government has already started negotiations with the U.S. to soften the ban. Seoul wants to have missiles capable of landing anywhere in North Korea.
For this, the maximum range of a missile should be as long as 1,000km with a payload of up to 1,000kg. On the part of the U.S. and other neighboring countries, such a missile might be considered to be a threat to their own security as well as the MTCR. But, South Korea has actually no other choice but to go beyond the ban in a bid to keep deterrence against the North’s constant military threats.
It is natural to bring a change to the missile pact in line with geopolitical and security changes taking place on the peninsula. North Korea is believed to have developed intermediate range missiles that can travel 3,000km, capable of striking Japan and Guam. The North has already deployed Scud missiles with a range of 300 to 500km. It has also deployed Rodong missiles with a range of 1,300km. In 2006 and 2009 it even test-fired a Taepodong intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Needless to say, the North’s possession of the long-range missiles is a grave threat to the defense and security of not only the South but also its allies in the Asia-Pacific region. Washington now fully recognizes this threat. During his visit to Beijing last week, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said North Korea has become a direct threat to America, noting that Pyongyang is capable of producing ICBMs within five years.
It would be nonsense for Seoul and Washington to stick to the outdated missile accord that cannot serve its purpose anymore. What’s important is to keep a balance between how to prevent proliferation of missiles and how to rein in the belligerent North. The South is to take over wartime operational control from the U.S. military in 2015. Thus, it is necessary for the two allies to work together to boost the South’s military preparedness to smoothen the transfer. One important step is to let the South improve its missile capabilities.