Kim’s Visit to China
Will North Korea Break Out of Nuclear Standoff?
A series of recent press reports hint that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may visit the communist country's oldest ally, China, as early as this weekend. The trip has also been referred to by presidential spokeswoman Kim Eun-hye who said on March 31, ``There is a high possibility of it and we are keeping a close watch.'' Unusual activities have recently been detected in the Chinese capital of Beijing and in Dandong, a city bordering North Korea. Intelligence sources even said that an advance team of North Korean officials may already be in China to prepare for Kim's trip.
Speculations have come to the fore since the start of this year. And both Seoul and Washington are paying much attention to what could be Kim's fifth journey to the neighboring country since 2000. The reason for all this attention is because South Korean and U.S. policymakers have some expectations that Kim's trip, if realized, would help make a breakthrough in the deadlocked process for the North's denuclearization. The top priority of their policy toward the world's last Stalinist country is to restart the six-party denuclearization talks, which the North has boycotted since December 2008.
China is a member of the six-nation talks and can still exert considerable influence on the recalcitrant North. In fact, Beijing has played a significant role in persuading Pyongyang to move toward nuclear nonproliferation. Against this backdrop, the nuclear issue could be the main item on the agenda if and when Kim travels to the rising power of Asia. The United States seems to strongly want Chinese leaders to encourage the North to reinitiate the multilateral nuclear disarmament talks.
On the part of North Korea, Kim's trip is more than necessary to obtain economic assistance from one of the so-called G-2 countries. The already impoverished North Korean economy has been thrown into deeper trouble since the U.N. Security Council imposed economic sanctions and an arms embargo on the military regime for launching long-range missiles and conducting a second nuclear bomb test last spring. Things have gone from bad to worse as its November currency revaluation backfired, aggravating the shortage of food and other daily necessities.
Consequently, Kim has no other choice but to turn to China for help to recover from its economic woes and to attract badly-needed foreign investment from Chinese enterprises. However, Pyongyang would be required to present a ``gift'' to Beijing in return for aid. This gift could be a promise to return to the six-nation denuclearization talks. It may also contribute to stepping up China's efforts to invest in development projects in the North. China is seeking to make inroads into the North by building a new bridge over the Yallu River and paving a road to link Hunchun in its Jilin Province to the North's Rajin Port at the estuary of the Tumen River.
If Kim visits China sooner or later, we urge him not to miss the chance to break the nuclear deadlock. Seeking only an economic aid package with no intention to give up the nuclear weapons program will further isolate the reclusive country and heighten the risk of depending too much on China. It would be better for the North to take advantage of economic and diplomatic incentives for its denuclearization. We hope Kim will make a wise decision to settle peace and promote reconciliation and co-prosperity on the Korean Peninsula.