Missile or Satellite

Pyongyang Must Seek More Peaceful, Less Costly Ways

It's now certain North Korea will launch a missile disguised as a satellite in three to four weeks. What's less certain is whether it's really worth it for the impoverished communist country ― or a paying business in capitalists' terms, economically and diplomatically. The North apparently thinks so, but most of the rest of the world doesn't, and, despite some past successes, Pyongyang seems to be in the wrong this time.

The debate over the identity of the rocket likely to be fired from April 4 to 8 has little meaning. Who would believe the famine-stricken country's claims on the peaceful use of space, while it is failing to peacefully use what's on this planet? That Pyongyang is taking the ``normal" preparatory course for the satellite launch is just to justify its act sufficiently to avoid international criticism and possible sanctions with a diplomatic shrewdness that has helped to sustain the otherwise hopeless state.

As most experts of international politics agree, all this is little more than a tug-of-war over who should get a head start between North Korea, which has just reinstated Kim Jong-il as its leader for the third time, and the new U.S. administration of President Barack Obama.

As seen in Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent visit to Seoul, the United States thinks time is on its side ― as it has been most of the time ― as North Korea would hardly be able to reopen its disabled Yongbyon plant anyway. So the missile card is Kim Jong-il's counterblow to offset this U.S. complacency and regain the upper hand, while unifying North Korean people amid renewed tension with its archenemy.

And Kim, a crafty old fox in this diplomatic game, must be calculating Washington and its allies have few effective means of preventing his move, or even punishing it afterwards in any significant ways, as long as he takes steps following internationally recognized practices.

Even if the Taepodong-2 missile could reach not just Hawaii or Alaska but Washington state, however, this would never mean the North had the ability to trigger a nuclear war against the United States, which could retaliate hundreds or thousands of times over. Kim may also think he would be able to export missile technology to some Middle East countries, but Iran has already succeeded in launching its own, sharply lowering the price tags on those of the North.

The communist state had the experience of breaking a nuclear deadlock with a missile launch a decade ago, and Pyongyang seems to be wanting a replay, but, seen by the responses of Washington so far, that seems hardly likely, either.

If most of this should be for domestic use, Pyongyang will have much more to lose than gain from this costly missile show, not just economically, but diplomatically, by deepening its alienation from the rest of the world, including its closest ally, China, which has so far discouraged the test-fire ― to little avail.

By most appearances, the missile fuss could end as another expensive self-celebration on the part of the North, for only God knows what, and at its own expenses. We hope so, too, because history otherwise shows conflicts happen when normal presumptions go awry.

And if this happens by any chance, South Korea, due mainly to its government in petty, blind-minded obstinacy, while blind to international politics, watching only the face of its biggest patron, may be left as a uniquely dependent and indiscreet country.