Ukraine’s fate drones on
The stunningly successful Ukrainian drone attacks on multiple airbases across Russia’s deep interior last week, hitting and likely destroying a sizable portion of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, demonstrated the audacity of the beleaguered Kyiv government’s refusal to surrender. Operation Spider Web hit Russian missile-carrying bombers, including the huge and lumbering propeller Tu-95 Bear, the Tu-22M Backfire and supersonic Tu-160 Blackjack bombers.
A desultory diplomatic process to bring a needed ceasefire to the three-year war seems to have stalled; the United States, Britain and the Europeans all thought both sides, bloodied by grim, static conflict, were ready for peace. Well yes, but on their own terms! As the blood of both Ukrainians and Russians is spilled on the front lines, Ukrainian cities suffer targeted air raids by swarms of Iranian-built Russian drones. The staccato of indiscriminate terror hits apartment buildings, playgrounds and shopping centers.
While ceasefire negotiations in Istanbul have achieved some success with sizable prisoner swaps, a notable boost for morale on both sides, nobody wants to give up blood-soaked terrain. More than 1.4 million people, including one million Russians and 400,000 Ukrainian troops, have been killed or wounded in three years of fighting.
On Saturday, Russia pounded Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, with a massive drone and glide bomb attack, killing four people and injuring nearly 60. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the strikes on Kharkiv made “no military sense” and were “pure terrorism.” That’s true, but is there a bigger picture we are missing?
According to a humanitarian briefing to the United Nations Security Council, “These incidents underscore the continued vulnerability of civilians nationwide, including the more than 3.7 million people currently displaced across Ukraine … As the Secretary-General reaffirmed under international humanitarian law, constant care must be taken to spare civilians.”
Despite Western wishful thinking and logic to the contrary, Vladimir Putin seems to be digging in. The hyper-nationalist president has a Russian heart but a Soviet soul, both of which can sustain a grinding and sanguinary war well into the future. But Putin’s seeming reluctance to “settle for” a ceasefire overlooks the obvious. Is it that Russia is winning, or more likely, has the Kremlin’s staff planned a massive summer offensive to try to smash Ukrainian resistance?
Symbolically, a new statue of the Soviet dictator Josef Stalin was placed on display in the Moscow Metro; Stalin, after all, fits into Putin’s narrative of the bloody but ultimately successful victory over Nazi Germany during the Great Patriotic War. Stalin statues are popping up across Russia as testament to Putin’s wish to link the Russo-Ukraine war with World War II.
U.S. President Donald Trump has soundly chastised Putin for recent civilian attacks on Ukraine. “I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin,” he exclaimed, adding in a social media post that Putin “has gone absolutely CRAZY!” and was needlessly killing a lot of people.
But Russian tactics are creating a constellation of forces in the West which may finally be able to press for a serious ceasefire and a later peace deal. Poland has recently seen the election of a new nationalist President Karol Nawrocki, whose policies are seen as closer to those of the U.S. President.
There’s an equal softening of skepticism regarding Germany’s new conservative Chancellor Frederich Merz, who during a recent visit to Washington D.C. got on well with President Trump despite the nervousness of the legacy media. The chancellor spoke about having “very close cooperation” with the U.S. on a number of issues. German Deutsche Welle TV admitted that Merz and Trump “clearly had a rapport.”
Chancellor Merz said that he was extremely satisfied with his visit to Washington and remains a staunch supporter of transatlantic relations with the U.S. Now Germany is increasing its NATO contribution from the 2 percent minimum up to 5 percent!
Within days of assuming office in early May, Merz visited Ukraine with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The European leaders had hoped for a ceasefire and peace talks. That was wishful thinking.
Importantly, the new conservative Chancellor from the Christian Democratic Union party has significantly ramped up support to Ukraine from his Social Democratic predecessor; Germany is sending another $5 billion in additional weapons to support Ukraine’s defense. Indeed, the Berlin government is one of Ukraine’s staunchest backers, along with the U.S. and Britain.
But with summer approaching, there’s a lingering feeling that Vladimir Putin may be looking for one more military gamble in Ukraine.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of "Divided Dynamism:The Diplomacy of Separated Nations; Germany, Korea, China."