Concern and uncertainty
By Tong Kim
We are going through an uneasy period of concern and uncertainty. We don't know when or how the coronavirus epidemic will end. However, we know that when the epidemic subsides, the North Korean issue will resurface. We don't know how the current flux in the security order in the region may evolve in the coming years.
Robert O'Brien, U.S. national security adviser, recently said Trump will not go to another summit with North Korea, unless a deal is assured beforehand. John Bolton, O'Brien's immediate predecessor, and Jim Kelly, Trump's former White House chief of staff, are saying that Trump's North Korea policy has failed.
There is no prospect for resuming the talks with Pyongyang at this point. Trump and Kim Jong-un may prefer the status quo to continue until after the U.S. elections in November.
North Korea is quiet nowadays. They are supposed to be busy building a self-reliant economy, probably exploring more ways to circumvent the restrictions of sanctions. In addition to ship-to-ship transfers of coal, they may be working on outright cyberattacks for financial gains.
In April, South Korea is holding elections for the National Assembly. And their outcome could be a new turning point for inter-Korean relations and the ROK-U.S. alliance.
If the ruling party wins the election, the government will likely be more aggressive in reaching out to the North. They may want to seek more independence from the U.S. in their pursuit of inter-Korean cooperation on joint projects.
They may want to return to a “balanced diplomacy” between China and the U.S. They will remember that the Philippines decided to end U.S. military presence in their country, a blow to the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy.
If the opposition party wins, they will call on President Moon to adopt a hardline policy on North Korea with sanctions and pressure on human rights. They will call for a stronger alliance with the U.S. They may call for a regime change in the North.
South Korea is a vibrant democracy. Critics call the president a spokesman or a spy for the North. Anti-Moon rallies demand that he step down. A North Korean defector, critical of Moon's policy, is running for the national parliament. South Korea has impeached and removed one of its previous presidents.
In other parts of the world, China is going through an epidemic crisis. The U.S. is going through Democratic primaries to pick a presidential candidate who will compete against Donald Trump.
After the U.S. presidential election, Washington may consider a different approach to North Korea. The experience of the past 30 years shows there is one path, still worth to try toward denuclearization.
That should be a long-term, phased approach with “corresponding measures” built in each phase of a denuclearization process. The ultimate goal of the dismantlement and removal of the North's arsenal will have to come in the last phase of the process.
As military force is not a viable option, negotiations should resume, perhaps starting at the working level to agree on a formula or process from freeze, containment, and to eventual elimination of the nuclear arsenal in the North.
People are being haunted by the fear of the coronavirus epidemic. As of Feb. 24, in China there were 79,159 cases with total deaths of 2,470 and in South Korea 763 cases and 7 deaths. Its economic impact will be enormous.
In the midst of the scary news of the coronavirus, there was some good news for South Koreans: Their movie “Parasite” won four Oscars, including “Best motion picture of the year.” It was the first time that a foreign-language film won the best movie award in the history of 92 years of the Academy Awards. President Moon celebrated by hosting a congratulatory luncheon with the director and his team who worked on the film.
President Trump was not happy about it. Speaking of the Oscar-winning Korean film, he questioned at a campaign rally in Colorado Springs Feb 20, “What the hell was that all about? We've got enough problems with South Korea, with trade. And after all that they gave them the best movie of the year?”
The next day in a Las Vegas rally, Trump was doubling down on his earlier comment, saying that he wants to see American movies honored. He said: “They used to call it the best foreign movie. Now we do it that way. I don't get it.”
The American distributor of the film Neon tweeted: “Understandable, he can't read.” South Koreans did not appreciate Trump's remark. Trump did not help build a friendship with South Korea.
A lot more will happen, and nothing is certain.
Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com
) is a visiting professor with the University of North Korean Studies, a visiting scholar with Korea University, a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies, and a columnist for The Korea Times.