Two Koreas and US
By Tong Kim
As a protracted stalemate is settling on nuclear negotiations, it's been quiet on the North Korean front ― with no provocations. Pyongyang appears focused on its internal agenda. It is busy realigning its party apparatus, shuffling party cadres; and carrying out its self-reliance policy to breach the barriers of sanctions to economic development.
Washington speaks less ill of the socialist monarchy in Pyongyang for its nuclear policy or its abuses of human rights. But Trump's defense secretary still calls North Korea a rogue state, underscoring its threats. Trump made no mention of North Korea in his State of the Union address on Feb. 4, unlike the two previous occasions in Congress. Perhaps, he had nothing good to say about the North Korean nuclear situation.
Trump sounded like he was delivering a campaign stump, bragging about his performance on domestic issues. He did not delve into foreign policy, except for making a passing reference to his flexible stance on Iran and his demand for U.S. allies to increase their share of incurred burdens.
In Seoul, the Moon government has been struggling to get out of the box in which it is totally shunned by the North. Moon is trying hard to revive inter-Korean dialogue. The North has been disappointed at the failure of the South to deliver economic assistance that it promised through three inter-Korean summits. It has blamed the South for yielding to U.S. interference in inter-Korean projects.
Seoul's recent proposal for individual tourism to North Korea, which is not banned by U.N. sanctions, would not pay much to the North, as compared to the reopening of group tours to Mount Geumgang or the joint industrial complex in Gaeseong or linking railways to the North. All three of these projects are not doable under the U.N. sanctions.
In the midst of the deadlocks on nuclear talks and inter-Korean engagement, the novel coronavirus epidemic has emerged as the most acute focus of attention in Seoul and many other major cities of the world. Pyongyang is no exception. It has assigned the task of preventing the spread of the new coronavirus to its Central Emergency Anti-epidemic Headquarters.
The reclusive government has shut down its borders with China, while it has not yet reported any cases of the new coronavirus. The border closing is likely to affect the black-market economy in the North, an important part of the lifeline for the people who depend heavily on goods smuggled in from China.
Even under these circumstances, the North Koreans will watch South Korea's parliamentary elections in April and the U.S. presidential election in November. They certainly would want to see a victory by Moon's party, and probably would favor Trump's re-election.
In Seoul, a preliminary contest for the next presidential election ― that will take place more than two years from now ― will be held between two former prime ministers: Lee Nak-yon of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea and Hwang Kyo-ahn of the Liberty Korea Party. The two will compete in the Jongno District of Seoul, a symbolic venue representing Korean politics.
In Washington, Trump just got off the Senate impeachment trial with an acquittal, which left behind a sharp political division between the Democratic and Republican parties and their respective supporters. Questions still remain with respect to the facts of charges and interpretation of the Constitution. The justifications for acquittal included an argument that, even if the charges were true, they did not rise to an impeachable level. Now, for all practical purposes, American voters will be the final jurors to deliver a verdict on Trump in November.
Pyongyang discards democracy as a divisive and unproductive system. It does not want an opposition party or a system of checks and balances that will challenge and restrict the power of their absolute leader. The North Korean elite think their system is more stable politically. They don't think of their system as the culprit for their failing economy or the cause of hardships for the people.
In the meantime, the North Korean military is watching how this year's U.S.-South Korea joint exercises will be conducted. Every annual allied drill has put the KPA forces on alert, forcing them to squeeze fuel and other scarce resources to run counter combat maneuvers, placing a great burden on them. In addition to the routine training and exercises, they participate in national construction projects.
Many are expecting that next month's joint allied exercises will be of the same scale but over a shorter period than those of last year. If this is the case, it will be unlikely for the North to launch a major provocation. It may prefer a quiet standoff for the time being.
Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com
) is a visiting professor with the University of North Korean Studies, a visiting scholar with Korea University, a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies, and a columnist for The Korea Times.