GSOMIA and North Korea
By Tong Kim
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South Korea is having a tough time dealing with the aftermath of two critical security issues: cancellation of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and North Korea's double rejection of talks on denuclearization and inter-Korean relations.
In the final analysis, the termination of the military information sharing agreement with Japan will not change the fundamental security environment in East Asia. North Korea has not given up dialogue but is not ready for talks, and it will not be unless and until it will be offered an easing of sanctions. The North is likely to return to dialogue with the South at some point.
Seoul's decision to scrap GSOMIA was made in reaction to Japan's trade retaliation for Korea's court decision to allow indemnity for the victims of forced labor under Japanese colonial rule. It was retaliation for retaliation. The decision was made knowingly against the wishes of the Trump administration.
It may be seen as a setback for Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy to reign in China's growing influence. The U.S. secretaries of state and defense expressed their “disappointment” and “concerns”. Trump said both Moon and Abe are my friends and stated that he will “see what happens.”
In Seoul, some had suspected that Washington was pushing for Japan's rearmament as the main partner of a new regional security structure, in which South Korea would fall to a sub-level partner. If this kind of suspicion had factored in the decision making, it would signal a broader implication on the dynamics of shaping a new security order in the region.
To Pyongyang and Beijing, Seoul's ending of GSOMIA would be welcomed news. They have been opposing Seoul's security cooperation with Tokyo and its alliance with Washington. However, Seoul does not want to weaken its alliance with the United States. The South needs the alliance as the most powerful means of defense against the North. Seoul says it will strengthen the alliance by upgrading its defense capability.
The North is worried about the South's enhancing military might ― with the acquisition of cutting-edge weapons and increased defense spending. Seoul has already brought in 10 F-35A stealth fighters that can strike missile bases in the North without being detected, or participate in a “decapitation operation” to get rid of Pyongyang's leadership. The North believes joint drills are aimed at destroying their country.
Kim Jong-un was supposed to resume nuclear talks after the exercise ended on Aug 20. Talks are yet to take place. The U.S. envoy on North Korea Stephen Biegun was in Seoul last week, hoping that North Korea would come to working-level talks at Panmunjeom. The North said no.
Contrary to Kim's promise, the North keeps firing ballistic missiles even in the wake of the joint drills, the latest one on August 24. It keeps intensifying diatribes in rhetoric against the South and the U.S. Lately, Pyongyang waged rude verbal attacks against President Moon Jae-In after his Aug 15 speech and against Secretary of State Mike Pompeo after his interview with The Washington Examiner.
In his speech Moon advocated for “a peace economy” that would benefit both Koreas, expressing his hope for “a unified one Korea” by 2045, the centennial of Korean liberation. The next day, North Korea's Committee of Peaceful Reunification of the Country (CPRC) characterized Moon's remarks as “reckless” and said Moon's proposal “makes the boiled head of a cow provoke side-splitting laughter.”
It called the South Korean president “an impudent guy rare to be found,” and “a funny man who just reads what was written for him.” The CPRC concluded that “the North has nothing to discuss with the South Korean authorities nor has it any intent to sit down with them again.”
After Pompeo said that if the North does not denuclearize, the U.S. will maintain the toughest sanctions in history until the North realizes denuclearization is their right path, Pyongyang's foreign minister Ri Yong-ho on Aug 23 called him “a diehard toxin.”
Ri said Pompeo was more interested in his own political interest, berating him as “a troublemaker bereft of sensible cogitative power and rational judgment as he only casts dark shadow over the prospect of the DPRK-U.S. negotiations.” Ri added, “We are ready for both dialogue and stand-off.”
After Hanoi, North Korea called for replacement of Pompeo with “a mature person.” In Washington there has been talk of Pompeo running for the Senate in 2020. But Pompeo has said he will stay in his current job as long as President Trump wants.
One thing is clear: the North does not want to deal with Pompeo any more than with John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser.
Tong Kim is a columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.