How Russia gas pipeline can build trust in N. Korea
By Younghoon David Kim
When U.S. President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi on Wednesday and Thursday, he will find himself up against the issue that has always been the stumbling block preventing the North from coming in from the cold.
That is the question of trust.
Why, the North Koreans ask, should we trust the Americans and their South Korean allies and lay down our best weapons? Instead, why don't they accept us as a nuclear power and agree to sign a Korean War peace treaty?
Why, the Americans ask in turn, should we trust you to honor any agreement we make when you have never done so in the past?
If the solution to the Korea question is for North Korea to make a strategic refocus, from security to economic development, then this trust question becomes the central issue that needs to be addressed for the desired change to happen.
This is easier said than done and we must accept that the solution is long-term. Unfortunately, this means whatever happens at the summit, those who want immediate clarity are going to be very critical of Trump for failing to achieve it.
But the likely way forward toward a Korean War peace treaty and a possible freeze of North Korea's nuclear program would include some measure of sanctions-lifting that allows Kim to pursue the economic development he desires.
The more this development takes shape, the stronger the incentive for North Koreans not to sabotage the progress.
Among the plans under consideration, the proposed pipeline bringing Russian gas through North Korea to South Korea serves the economic and political interests of the United States and North Korea, as well as other regional players.
It is not directly beneficial to North Korea from an energy viewpoint, as North Korea uses coal and not natural gas. But the North Koreans will receive useful rental payments to allow the pipeline to cross its territory. More importantly, it is a way for North Korea to demonstrate its new reliability and to build the trust needed for expanded trade and investment.
The pipeline idea has been around since the mid-1990s, but politics has always prevented progress. North Korea's previous leader, Kim Jong-il, refused to allow feasibility studies along the 750-kilometer North Korean portion of the proposed route. Amid the current thaw, however, the chances are that his son and the new leader, Kim Jong-un, will see this project as a chance to demonstrate good faith.
Ironically, it is the United States that is lukewarm to the idea of Russians selling gas to South Korea. The stumbling block here is the sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. However, looked at more broadly, and more long-term, the pipeline project fits with strategic U.S. interests.
For example, closer ties are going to bring North Korea under greater scrutiny and pressure to improve its human rights. Faced with such pressure, the North Koreans may be tempted to misbehave. But the gas pipeline would be a major incentive for them not to overreact to criticism.
At the same time, the pipeline is significant in terms of Russian relations with the United States and the Northeast Asian region. The Russians are looking to reduce their dependence on gas sales to Europe and diversify to Asia. While the timing may not be right now, eventual U.S. approval of the pipeline project would go some way toward improving U.S.-Russia relations.
In addition, the pipeline would signal a return of a measure of Russian influence with North Korea, which would go some way toward balancing the major power influence on the Korean Peninsula.
Given this, rather than be motivated by a desire to disadvantage the Russians, the United States should support the pipeline in line with its strategic interests in the region.
The longer-term vision for the United States should be of a Northeast Asia that operates on free-market and democratic values. Such a region would be an economic powerhouse and the United States would naturally be a key member.
As a preliminary step toward bringing North Korea in from the cold and as part of a broader gas grid delivering energy to the region, the pipeline moves the region in the direction of future economic integration. The United States should be on the right side of such a positive initiative from the outset.
Younghoon David Kim is chairman of the London-based World Energy Council and chairman and CEO of the Daesung Group.