Rail linking and denuclearization
By Tong Kim
.jpg?w=728)
The South and the North held a joint ceremony recently in Gaeseong, declaring a renewed agreement to undertake an ambitious railway linking and modernization project to bring about mutual economic benefits, consolidate their peace efforts and hopefully contribute to the process of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.
The event reflected Seoul's symbolic determination to implement inter-Korean agreements wherever possible, as it was agreed to have a groundbreaking ceremony by the end of 2018. This project was one of the several elements of agreement in the Panmunjeom and Pyongyang summit declarations along with denuclearization.
President Moon Jae-in has envisioned an East Asia railway initiative that will link a trans-Korean Peninsula rail to a transcontinental system in conjunction with Russian and Chinese railways.
However, actual work for the project ― that includes a further survey of the rail conditions of the North and a joint modernization plan ― will not begin unless the South is granted special waivers from the sanctions that prohibit shipment to the North materials needed for the rail project. The South has funds, technology as well as the political will to help the North in this regard. The North has land and manpower.
The bottom line is any South Korean assistance is simply not possible under the current sanctions regime, with which Seoul says it is committed to comply.
In other words, the North is unable to get any economic aid ― whether through the reopening of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex or resumed tourism to Mount Geumgang ― other than limited aid on humanitarian grounds, unless the sanctions are lifted, which in turn will not happen unless measurable progress is made in denuclearization.
While U.S. President Donald Trump still wants to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in January or February, his advisers and other foreign policy elites in Washington seem to believe sanctions are the only tool that works and that they can rely on. Some of them are concerned he might settle for a partial, not “complete,” denuclearization. Trump being the way he is ― unconventional, inconsistent and impulsive, nobody knows what Trump might do in the end.
Trump's foreign policy is based on the simplistic economic terms of “America first,” ready to discard all the norms of trade and security apparatus that the United States has spearheaded since the end of World War II.
At times Trump is seen willing to undermine traditional U.S. alliances, if they are not willing to pay for their shares of the burden. Or abandoning the role of international police in the name of burden sharing. Not to mention the role of the world's leader of democracy or freedom rooted in American values.
There is no international law or providence that there should be a unipolar world under American supremacy. History is not a guide because there never was a president like Donald Trump.
To everyone's surprise, he may turn out to be an innovative or inventive president who may end up resolving the intractable North Korean issue and more sources of trouble around the world that no other U.S. presidents were able to resolve.
Trump's inaugural statement two years ago that he does want to impose an American system on other nations may resonate well in North Korea and other autocracies, who oppose foreign powers' interference in their internal affairs. The question is whether the world is ready for such a sharp shrinkage of the American role.
As seen in Trump's decision to pull out of Syria, he is capable of making decisions, overruling his advisers' objections. He fires his secretaries and advisers whose views are “not aligned with his views.”
The departure of Defense Secretary James Mattis, in addition to the firing of former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and other big shots, should not cause concerns that Trump's impulsiveness or his recklessness might trigger another security crisis. Now he is two years in office, with a steady base of support in the electorate.
Both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton seem fully supportive of Trump's success with North Korea. Even if they may not agree with him, neither of them will be likely to resign in protest. In conclusion, it will all depend on Trump, who has been successfully keeping the nuclear drama in suspense thus far.
Eventually, a breakthrough can only come through either Trump's decision to lift sanctions or a new set of Kim's unilateral initiatives to denuclearize the North. Kim has more room to make the next positive move ― such as freezing nuclear missile production activities. Until then, the show of a standoff is bound to continue.
Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.