Long haul to denuclearization
By Tong Kim
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The outcome of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un Oct. 7 can be summarized in three areas of agreement: to hold a second U.S.-North Korea summit “as soon as possible,” to form “a working group” to discuss the denuclearization process, and to continue working together toward “complete denuclearization” according to the Singapore agreement.
Pompeo characterized his talks with the North's state chairman as “a good, productive conversation.” While the conversation seemed to have covered several relevant issues of denuclearization, there seemed to be no negotiations on their differences. Their meeting lasted two hours, plus a luncheon. However, it signaled the significant resumption of nuclear talks between the U.S. and North Korea.
After Pompeo's fourth visit to Pyongyang, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted, “…I am looking forward to seeing Chairman Kim Jong-un in the near future.” Both Kim and Trump want to have a second meeting. Kim seems to believe he may have a better chance to get what he wants directly from the unconventional American president.
The timing and location for a second summit will likely be determined when Trump feels that the North has done enough or when he is confident that it will do more, so he can claim it as a major progress. Critics said Trump went to Singapore ill-prepared, ignoring the advice of his security team. By now, Trump should know better and more about what it takes to denuclearize North Korea.
The formation of a working group indicates a return of negotiations to the “bottom up” format from “top down.” The new group, likely to be headed by North Korea policy representative Stephen Biegun and his North Korean counterpart, yet to be named, will discuss the detailed arrangements for a second summit. In addition, it will be the main negotiating forum regarding the whole process of denuclearization.
The North insists it will not take unilateral action without “corresponding measures” from Washington, given the mutual lack of trust. The U.S. insists on denuclearization first; while the North is sticking to a phased and synchronized process. The U.S. is firm to keep sanctions in place, refusing to grant any formal, political or security rewards ― such as an end-of-war declaration or a peace agreement, not to mention a normalized relationship ― until after the North completes denuclearization.
Kim and Pompeo reportedly discussed U.S. participation in the observation of the destruction of the Tongchangri missile testing site including its launch pad. Pompeo might have raised the issue of dismantling ICBMs. They seem to have also discussed what specific “corresponding measures” Kim Jong-un had in mind to ask of the U.S. in return for his proposed dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear complex.
In the meantime, Washington seems to have backed down on the timeline of denuclearization, after its earlier, unsuccessful attempt to frame it within a year or sooner. Kim Jong-un has mentioned a timeline by the end of Trump's current term in office ― January 2021. Last week, Pompeo said he was not playing “a time game.” Trump had said it would not matter if it takes two or three years.
On the other hand, the North has rejected the U.S. demand for a complete, verifiable declaration of its nuclear arsenal. Last week, the South Korean foreign minister suggested that the U.S. consider an exchange of an end-of-war declaration with the North's proposed destruction of the core nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, instead of demanding a verifiable list of nuclear weapons and facilities.
President Moon has been pushing for a declaration ending the war as an “entry step” to a broader and binding peace regime. Moon said he and Kim share the view such a declaration will not affect the presence of U.S. troops or the ROK-U.S. alliance. Moon and Kim have virtually declared an end to the war and a non-aggression pact.
On Oct. 2, the Korea Central News Agency published a commentary that an end-of-war declaration should not be a “bargaining chip” for denuclearization, saying that North Korea will not take further steps under the pressure of sanctions.
This position was confirmed by Pyongyang's foreign minister Ri Yong-ho, when he told the U.N. General Assembly last month that his country would “never unilaterally denuclearize without corresponding U.S. measures that will give us confidence,” including the lifting of sanctions.
It appears that Pyongyang has shifted the focal point of its demand from a war ending declaration to an easing of sanctions as a pressing corresponding measure it seeks from Washington. Future progress will depend more on the tangible reduction of sanctions than on political statements.
Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.