Leaders and their characters
By Choi Sung-jin
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When and where will Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un meet?
The U.S. president is beating around the bush concerning the date and venue for the “talk of the century” between him and the North Korean leader.
This might mean the working-group officials of the two countries have yet to iron out their differences on some points. The unresolved issues could range from their different definitions of denuclearization to releasing the three Korean-Americans detained in the North.
Pyongyang's criticism of the U.S. for taking issue with the North's human rights abuses also seems to indicate an 11th-hour tug-of-war is going on, keeping President Trump from announcing the time and place of the summit.
Some diplomatic watchers here guess the U.S. hard-liners might be making additional demands on the Trump administration to prevent Kim from winning easy points. These hawks suspect Trump, anxious to make up for domestic failures ― various scandals and unpopular policies ― with a diplomatic victory, may end up with a compromise deal such as incomplete denuclearization.
Even though we assume the historic meeting will take place in June in Panmunjeom or Singapore, hopes and fears, as well as optimism and pessimism, coexist about how it will end.
One of the riskiest factors is the two leaders' characters. Both are unpredictable and impulsive but resolute and gutsy. Trump is an experienced businessman with much vanity, childishness and hunger for the spotlight. Kim is quick and witty but can change himself as if he were a completely different person.
Both are heavy bettors and badly need a successful summit. Trump is dying to outperform his predecessor in every way while Kim is seeking to improve his people's dire economic conditions.
Commentators here and abroad have made suggestions on how to make the most of Trump's character to get the desired results under such titles as “User's Guide to Trump” or “Manual on Trump.” For instance, they advised President Moon Jae-in to heap praise on his U.S. counterpart. Moon followed the advice and received a big thumbs-up from Trump on the inter-Korean summit.
Others call for Moon and his diplomatic team to allow Trump to reaffirm he is the master of negotiation, or “artist of the deal” as the title of his book suggests. “Give Trump a victory, or let him feel he has got one, or at least allow him to propagandize as if he won the game,” one U.S. media outlet said.
After watching the renegotiations of the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement, a local analyst said, “Stand up to Trump's unreasonable demands by sticking to international norms, and make a concession only at the final moment, and he will back off.” Another called for promising economic benefits to please the businessman-turned-politician ― but without specific deadlines and details.
South Koreans are now finding themselves in a strange position where they have to wish for the success of two of the world's least popular leaders. Ironically, had it not been for these unusual leaders with strange characters, the North Korean nuclear crisis might have still been mired in the swamp.
Just imagine Hillary Clinton occupied the White House and it would take her months, if not years, to decide whether to accept Kim's offer for talks. Likewise, had Kim Jong-un's cautious father Kim Jong-il remained at the top post in Pyongyang, the Panmunjeom summit would have been unthinkable.
All this shows South Korea and its leader should remain most alert to turn the once-in-a-century opportunity into an event to end national division and bring about peace and co-prosperity. South Korean ultra-rightists who denounce the Moon-Kim summit as playing into Pyongyang's hands are going against the times.
However, some conservatives are right to express concerns that the ongoing series of summits will end up as much ado about nothing ― lifting sanctions entirely for just freezing nuclear programs or even stopping the development of ICBMs.
Most U.S. media outlets, conservative or liberal, are also skeptical about the prospects of the Trump-Kim summit. Past experience shows they have reason to be doubtful. Only when the two conditions ― the involved countries' national interests and their leaders' chemistry ― are met, can the talks end the decades-long hostility and turn it into a detente.
In the worst-case scenario, Kim and Trump may remain content with the grandiose declaration and rough timetable, if only such half-baked accords can bring Trump victory in the midterm elections and give Kim some breathing room from economic hardships.
Moon should persuade Kim to drop nuclear weapons, not just in words but with action, and follow the path of China and Vietnam if the young North Korean leader is still not ready to go that far.
The South Korean leader also needs to inspire Trump's business ambitions by, for instance, pushing him to build a Trump Tower along the shores of the Taedong River in Pyongyang. This is not least because both Kim and Trump are the leaders who can break their promises if situations change, making it doubly difficult for Seoul to shape diplomatic policies against them in this “post-truth” political environment.
President Moon Jae-in recently said, “Let President Trump win the Nobel Price Prize. For us, peace itself will be the greatest prize.” You are right, Mr. President. Try your best to make it happen.
Choi Sung-jin is a Korea Times columnist. Contact him at choisj1955@naver.com.