What to expect from summit
By Tong Kim
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On Friday morning the world will watch President Moon Jae-in shake hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the south side of Panmunjeom, probably with broad smiles on their faces.
As they kick off a historic third inter-Korean summit, cameras will start rolling to capture every moment of their encounter and an arrival ceremony in front of the House of Peace, where the two leaders will spend a full day for substantive meetings and a dinner afterwards.
The optics of their summit will be great, but that does not guarantee a great outcome. There is no question this summit will impact the future of the Korean Peninsula. Their agenda is widely known: to make progress in inter-Korean relations, peace and denuclearization, none of which will be possible to achieve without the other two.
Moon is going into the meeting with optimism from North Korea's surprise changes in policy and conscious of a follow-up summit between Pyongyang and Washington, which hopefully will put the icing on the cake on the issues of denuclearization and peace settlement.
After Moon said North Korea was not bringing up its demand for U.S. troop withdrawal from South Korea in preparations for its summit with the U.S., Kim made a stunning announcement to freeze further nuclear and missile tests and to dismantle the North's nuclear test site.
Kim also promised the North will not use or transfer nuclear weapons “under any circumstances unless there are nuclear threats and nuclear provocations against the DPRK.” The North also declared that it will “join the international desire and efforts for the total halt to the nuclear tests.”
Another significant turnaround in Pyongyang's policy is dropping the requirement of nuclear development from its long-practiced Byungjin policy of nuclear development and economic construction. Pyongyang vowed to make all efforts to build a powerful socialist economy and improve the standard of living for the people.
The North's recent declaration of nuclear and missile freeze, while it is a welcome development, does not mention whether North Korea will also want to abandon its nuclear weapons which they have already developed and even deployed in some cases. Their narrative for the voluntary nuclear freeze is that they have achieved their “state nuclear force” and they have enough weapons, and therefore, they don't have to develop more nukes or missiles.
Based on past experience in nuclear negotiations with the North, a freeze was the first phase that had to be settled before moving forward. Now with this critical step being out of the way, the negotiation of denuclearization can be facilitated even faster. There is no reason that we should do things the same way we did them before.
On the contrary, new ways or new approaches may work better this time. For example, setting a target deadline first before negotiating the details for implementation may well be worth a try. In a similar context, Moon and Kim can lead the discussion of a durable peace regime and they can later include the U.S. or also China in the discussion for conclusion. Trump is already blessing this effort to end the war in Korea.
For inter-Korean relations, we can expect the summit to agree on increased exchanges between the North and the South, more humanitarian aid, and even to resume reunions of separated families. However, President Moon is not expected to bring up the human rights situation in the North, as he knows that will not be constructive in his talks with Kim, who denies abuses of human rights in his country.
Again, if the summit at Panmunjeom produces a basic and broad agreement to work together for a complete and satisfactory denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, it will be a new milestone for security and peace. The world prays for a successful Korean summit for peace and prosperity for all.
Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies.