Outcome of Olympics diplomacy
By Tong Kim
.jpg?w=728)
As the PyeongChang Winter Olympics closed Sunday, Olympics diplomacy ended without finding a possible solution to the North Korean nuclear issue.
Yet, Olympics diplomacy has remarkably earned an improved inter-Korean relationship through dialogue and interactions on the highest level of both sides with full endorsement of the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Without cooperation from Washington and Pyongyang, PyeongChang would not have been a success. Although a scheduled meeting between U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, was aborted at the last minute, tensions calmed down during the Olympics. Joint Korea-U.S. military drills were suspended, and no missile or nuclear test was conducted.
If there was a propaganda war, it involved two mutual adversaries _ North Korea and the United States. And the winner appeared to be North Korea, which sent Kim Yo-jong, along with North Korea’s nominal head of state Kim Yong-nam to attend the opening of the Olympics and to invite President Moon Jae-in to Pyongyang.
Pence intentionally ignored the North Korean representatives at a reception and the opening ceremony, sitting stone faced next to the South Korean president during the entry of a unified South and North Korean team. While the North Korean arts troupe and its cheering squad were waging an effective charm offensive, the vice present tried hard to prevent “Pyongyang’s hijacking of the Olympics,” calling the regime “tyrannical” and “a prison state.”
Pence warned the toughest and most aggressive sanctions are yet to be imposed against the North. To underscore the North’s abuses of human rights, he met with North Korean defectors and invited to PyeongChang the parents of Otto Warmbier, an American student who died a week after his release from North Korea. To capture on the threatening nature of North Korean provocation, he visited the wreckage of a South Korean naval vessel that was said to be destroyed by a North Korean torpedo.
Watching Pence’s harsh rhetoric, on top of his total disregard for their presence at the opening events, the North Koreans pulled out from the scheduled meeting with him. They must have correctly determined that there was nothing new to hear from him, other than a heavy-handed demand for denuclearization and a maximum pressure campaign backed up by military action to that end.
Kim Yong-chol, a vice chairman of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Committee and director of the United Front that deals with South Koreans affairs, headed the delegation to attend the Olympics’ closing ceremony. He is a hard-liner and a controversial figure, who is suspected as the mastermind behind the sinking of the Cheonan navy vessel. U.S. President Donald Trump sent his daughter Ivanka to PyeongChang.
To sum up the impact of Olympic diplomacy, there is no change in the Trump administration’s policy on North Korea. Nor any change in Pyongyang’s position _ that is to continue finishing an operational nuclear missile capability to strike the U.S. homeland. However, thanks to Seoul’s hard work and its own calculations, the North had accepted a meeting with the U.S., albeit cancelled.
President Moon cautioned a summit with the North can only take place when the right conditions are met. The conditions include Washington’s endorsement. The White House, whose goal is to denuclearize the North, not to seek collapse or regime change in the North, has said any improvement in South-North relations must move along with the process of denuclearization.
If inter-Korean relations continue to improve, it might be easier to persuade Pyongyang than Washington to soften on its position and to seek serious “exploratory talks” with Washington. Pyongyang says they now have “everything we need” for deterrence. The world recognizes that the North has a formidable nuclear capability.
As a minimum, Pyongyang can release three American detainees, which should be easy and at no cost to the regime. Then it can extend their pause from additional tests, to maintain an atmosphere for engagement to stop the threats of war.
Moon is walking on a fine line between Pyongyang and Washington, regarding the alliance between war and peace.
Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies.