Real challenge after PyeongChang
By Tong Kim
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Events leading up to the opening of the PyeongChang Olympics have proven once again how difficult it is to make progress on the most pressing issue of peace on the Korean Peninsula.
While a significant breakthrough was noticed in inter-Korean relations, an open disagreement was disclosed between Seoul and Washington over what to do now or how to move toward the eventual denuclearization of North Korea.
Vice President Mike Pence’s hawkish statements on the North and his deliberate boycott of an opening reception hosted by President Moon, where he would sit at the same table with Pyongyang’s nominal head of state Kim Yong-nam, made it blindingly clear that the U.S. does not support Moon’s reconciliatory approach to the North.
Pence simply ignored Kim. It created an awkward moment for Moon, and raised a question of diplomatic courtesy.
Watching Pence’s visit to Japan, Pyongyang had said they had no intention of meeting with him during the Olympics nor would they “beg for talks.”
On the other hand, Moon all along wanted to see his dialogue with the North lead to talks between the North and the U.S. After a failed bilateral encounter, the North accused Washington of spoiling resumed inter-Korean relations.
Activities by the North Korean participants, including a joint entry parade and the performances by Pyongyang’s troupe, have received favorable responses in the South.
The North Koreans are dominating the South Korean media, outpacing the coverage of the U.S. vice president who denounces at every opportunity the tyrannical regime in the North and its abuses of human rights. Some feared that the Trump administration’s aggressive attack on the depravity of the North was designed to build a justification to launch a strike.
North Koreans masterminded a sophisticated choreography in capturing world attention to their participation in the Winter Olympics, sending its leader’s sister Kim Yo-jong, the second most powerful person in the Kim dynasty, and sending a delegation of over 500 members by land, sea, and air, circumventing U.N. sanctions, albeit with temporary waivers.
In Washington, talk of a preventive strike against the North seems to have lost its momentum not because the North’s nuclear threat was overlooked, but because of concerns over a catastrophic calamity, likely if not certainly, to follow any actual military strike out of several options that may have been “locked and loaded.”
An argument against a limited strike by Victor Cha, while being considered for U.S. ambassador to Seoul, spurred a debate of a “bloody nose” strike in Congress and Washington’s foreign policy establishment. And a dominant view was against such a strike.
Some senators questioned a lack of presidential authority or a legal basis to launch such a strike. In this sense, the aborted nomination of Dr. Cha has done a great service for the security interest of the U.S.-ROK alliance.
The real challenge for the alliance will follow the closure of the Olympics. Trump has said it will be “tricky, we will see.” Pence’s visit only underscores the difference with Seoul. Washington cannot afford to lose Seoul as an ally in the region.
It is the same for Seoul as long as the North remains as an existential threat to it. Allies can overcome some differences if their common goal remains the same: deterrence for peace. Seoul and Washington also have the same goal of a denuclearized peninsula.
The first test will begin with discussions to resume joint military exercises suspended until after the Olympics. The discussions could deal with the timing, scale, or duration of resumed joint drills. Kim Jong-un has already demanded an end to them.
It may be worth considering a quip pro quo between a freeze on North Korea’s nuclear missile program and a moderation of the joint exercises. The North would also be asked to reduce their costly drills.
There were some signs of self-restraint in Pyongyang’s military parade last week, avoiding a real-time television broadcast, without foreign media coverage, and a much shorter ceremony, although the parade included some ICBMs that had earlier been tested, but not showing new advanced weapons.
What will follow the Olympics will depend a lot on what the North may do or may not.
This column shares the view that North Korea is not so suicidal to use nuclear weapons first, except on a miscalculation.
It is important to prevent the chances of any miscalculation by controlling inflammatory rhetoric. There are many new strategic ideas and strategies to exhaust beyond sanctions and pressure before considering a military option.
Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies.