Doomsday clock for Kim Jong-un
By Chang Se-moon
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If Kim Jong-un had not developed a long-range ICBM, it is unlikely that President Trump would be so deeply involved in solving the North Korea nuclear issue. Since North Korea has now become a threat to global society, not just South Korea, the end of Kim’s dictatorship and possibly his own life appears to be getting closer to reality. Hopefully, the end comes at a minimal cost to South Korea as well as the rest of the world. This is where today’s article comes in.
I want us to develop a doomsday clock on Kim Jung-un’s life. I am really asking for your creative ideas so that we can develop the clock together. I will give you some background information you may want to consider.
You have all heard of the Doomsday Clock. I am borrowing stories about the Doomsday Clock from Wikipedia. The Doomsday Clock was created in 1947 by the members of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board to measure the likelihood of a global catastrophe not only from global nuclear war, but also from possible climate change and new developments “that could inflict irrevocable harm to humanity.” The Clock will hit midnight, i.e., 12, when the global catastrophe hits the earth.
When the Clock was set initially in 1947, it was set seven minutes to midnight. I have no idea why so close to midnight. It is possible that the year 1947 was only two years after the end of World War II, possibly explaining the mindset of the scientists who set the clock. The time on the Clock has been changed 22 times since 1947.
It is important to keep in mind that the Clock is not designed to predict when the catastrophe may hit the globe. Scientists who set the Clock meet only twice a year anyway, not when events that could lead to global catastrophe occur.
In 1949 when the Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb, the Clock was moved four minutes forward. In November 1952, the U.S. tested its first thermonuclear bomb and the Soviet Union followed the test in August 1953. These events moved the Clock forward by one. The Clock thus was pointing to the two-minute mark, closest to midnight in its history to date.
The Clock was changed many times since then and was set two minutes closer to 12 o’clock at the seven minute mark when North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon in October 2006 and Iran sped up its pursuit of nuclear ambitions. There was no more mention of North Korea after 2006.
In January 2017, the Clock was set at two and a half minutes to midnight, due to a worldwide rise of nationalism. This setting is the Clock's second closest approach to midnight since its introduction, after it was set to two minutes to midnight in 1953.
Returning to Kim Jung-un, I already predicted in the May 1, 2016 issue of this column in The Korea Times that Kim would be assassinated. I still believe that he will die at the hands of someone close to him or his power elite as Roman Emperor Julius Caesar died at the hands of his friend Brutus.
I have a pretty good idea of when, not where, the (Assassination) Clock should be set in the beginning. It can start ticking in 2011 when Kim took over North Korea. Beyond that, I have no idea of what initial timing the clock should point to. Could that be the 30-minute mark, 15-minute mark, or even zero-minute mark? What events would move the Clock and by how much?
Can you think of anything that Kim has done, that could move the Clock backward, away from midnight? If he agrees to the six-party talks, or if a pro-North Korea candidate is elected as the next president of South Korea, the Clock is likely to move backward. Can you think of anything else that may move the Clock backward?
Do we move the Clock forward every time he kills somebody close to him? I think we should, since killing high level officials and military leaders will create that many more people who want to kill him.
But move the Clock by how much? He has already killed well over 70 government officials, including his uncle Jang Song-thaek, Army Chief Ri Yong-Ho, and his half-brother Kim Jong-nam. Since Kim suffers a severe paranoid disorder, I have no doubt that he will continue to kill those close to him.
The problem with our Doomsday Clock for Kim is that if we move the Clock by one minute every time he has someone killed, the Clock may need more than 60 minutes since he is still alive. There has to be a good idea of how the Clock can be set up. I just do not know the answer.
Chang Se-moon is the director of the Gulf Coast Center for Impact Studies. Write to him at: changsemoon@yahoo.com.