Still hope in Pyongyang
By Tong Kim
North Korea has so far defied predictions that they would launch an ICBM test or carry out another nuclear test to demonstrate its capability of striking the homeland of the United States with a nuclear missile. Kim Jong-un may do it again anytime. The threat of North Korea’s capability is real: the North is nearing the perfection of its WMD program.
The delay may be based on constraints on resources, timing for domestic events, unresolved problems from previous failures or a new strategic calculation. The DPRK leader may still be looking for a credible clue to what President Donald Trump might do about Korea, and how the China factor will play out in a complex matrix of the nuclear issue, the South China Sea and trade relations.
Pyongyang has been busy following the unfolding stunning actions by Trump affecting domestic and foreign affairs. They analyze the potential impacts of these actions on their interests. They read Trump’s tweets and resulting media criticisms. They see implementations of the campaign pledges. Trump blasts his critics or anyone who does not agree with him.
With energy, speed and doggedness, Trump has already proven to be a strong president. The North has noted that Trump botched the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, before he was confirmed, said he supported. Pyongyang will scrutinize Trump’s meeting with Prime Minister Abe of Japan scheduled for Feb. 10 in Washington and their subsequent round of golf together in Florida..
Even after his Defense Secretary James Mattis and his CIA director Mike Pompeo both told their Senate confirmation hearings they opposed waterboarding or any other form of torture, Trump tweeted his belief in the effectiveness of waterboarding.
The North Koreans should not be perturbed by Secretary Mattis’ visit to South Korea and Japan. They are allies. There is nothing new in Mattis’ assurance of an “effective and overwhelming” U.S. response against any North Korean use of nuclear weapons. It is natural to cooperate with allies in coping with North Korea’s nuclear threat. The job of the secretary of defense is to deter and defend against any potential war.
There is a consensus in the new administration, although not sure of Trump’s agreement, that the security of the United States is best protected by strengthening alliances and forming new alliances on top of building a strong military.
Secretary Tillerson’s call to his counterparts in Seoul and Tokyo did not shed much light on how different the new administration’s policy will be from Obama’s. However, Mattis and Tillerson eased concerns of the allies from Trump’s campaign rhetoric, bashing them for not paying enough for defense, threatening to pull out U.S. troops and letting them develop their own nukes.
In Washington, many hope Trump listens to the prudent views of his secretaries of state and defense before he makes a decision. How the new White House National Security Council will work also is a point of observation.
A working relationship is not clear between national security advisor Mike Flynn and Steve Bannon, the President’s chief strategist and confidant (some call him Trump’s Rasputin), who also attends the Principals Committee of the National Security Council. Their views on North Korea are not well known.
The White House has reportedly ordered a review of its North Korea policy. What is clear at this point: North Korea has emerged as a top priority. This complies with Obama’s warning to Trump and the intelligence briefings he received from departed intelligence chiefs.
However, North Korea is unlikely to become a Sept. 11 for Trump, contrary to some radical warnings. Kim Jong-un is not crazy or insane to launch a suicidal attack on the United States. Extended deterrence or the preventive threat of a preemptive strike works only if the adversary cares about the stakes of death and destruction. Kim does care about the stakes.
He is also waiting for a new, progressive President of South Korea, who can overcome confrontation for dialogue to improve inter-Korean relations. However, if Kim Jong-un renews his reckless provocation, it will bring war a step closer. There is still a ray of hope for diplomacy. What’s your take?
Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.