What Trump can do for Korea
By Tong Kim
Three weeks into Trump’s transition to power, nobody seems to have a clear idea of what the incoming American administration would do on the Korean Peninsula and regarding a menacing nuclear North Korea in particular.
The President-elect has not clarified or reconciled conflicting comments that he made on the campaign trail. He is likely to present an overall foreign policy agenda or a Trump doctrineafter he takes office on Jan. 20.
Since his election, he has had phone calls with a number of foreign leaders, including the South Korean president, and told them all what they wanted to hear. He also met the Japanese prime minister and said positive things, without specifying what he would want to do with Japan. There were some criticisms of the way Trump handled his calls with foreign heads of state without seeking the assistance of the state department. But, there is only one president at a time.
For some time now, attention is focused on who will be heading national security posts. They may be an indication of how Trump will carry out his foreign policy. Trump is still going through a process of assembling his White House staff and cabinet secretaries.
As of this writing, he is yet to pick a nominee for the post of secretary of state from four finalists -- former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Retired Gen. David Petraeus, and Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker. For defense secretary, Trump said Thursday night that he will nominate retired Marine Gen. James “Mad dog” Mattis.
Trump appointed Retired Army Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, a strong advocate for fighting “radical Islamists”,as national security adviser at the White House. From his book “The Field of Fight.” some critics are concerned about his view that there is “an alliance” between extreme Islamists and countries like North Korea, China, and Russia.True, North Korea cooperated with Pakistan, Iran, and Syria on missile and nuclear development, but there is no evidence that the North Koreans worked with extreme Islamists.
Views of the relevant cabinet nominees or potential nominees so far with regard to Korea or Northeast Asia are not well known. Their views will be known during Senate confirmation hearings. (Senior White House staffs are not subject to confirmation).
The U.S. president-elect is still walking back and forth on his campaign promises.He doubled down on immigration and Obamacare, while moderating on prosecution of Hillary Clinton, climate change, waterboarding, etc. Although he is unswerving on America First, there is room for flexibility between campaign and governance. To “make America great again”, Trump promised to hire the best and the brightest who can help him make the best deals for America.
On the foreign policy front, one place that requires an urgent security deal is North Korea. Here is a set of ideas for Trump’s security team to consider in dealing with North Korea.
First, announce a serious interest to engage the DPRK and confirm the U.S. treaty commitment of alliance to the Republic of Korea -- hopefully through an inaugural speech. At one point, Trump said he would negotiate with Kim Jong-un. Trump also said his administration would seek no hostile policy against other countries. What goes around comes around, a proverb in which the North Koreans believe.
Maintain various forms of leverage, including sanctions and deterrent against provocation and threats from the North. Remind Pyongyang of economic and political rewards for its positive response. Delink the human rights issue from the issue of war and peace.
The UNSC resolution 2321 adopted last week that would reduce the DPRK’s revenue of foreign currency by roughly 25 percent is unlikely to persuade the North to cease its nuclear program. Pyongyang immediately rejected the latestUN sanction, repeating its narrative of self-defense, but it did not vow to keep strengthening its nuclear capability, as it did on previous occasions.
A phased plan of sanction removal can be designed to lock in steps of progress of a denuclearization process, if a serious negotiation is undertaken. To show the seriousness of its intent to engage the North, reopen the New York Channel for communication channel. An immediate goal should be to prevent misunderstanding and miscalculation, and to reduce tension and secure stability.
A total freeze of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs under international inspection and verification in return for corresponding carrots as well as agreement on non-proliferation to a third state or a non-state actor should be reached as a transition phase to the ultimate goal of denuclearization. Initial containment of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is not incompatible with the policy of non-acceptance of a nuclear North Korea.
Coordinate with South Korea to reopen the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and encourage resumption of inter-Korean dialogue. Bring China on board again to work on the North Korean nuclear and missile issue. Reconsider the deployment of a THAAD battery to South Korea. At least, announce a plan to reexamine the plan.
Deterrent should include the option of a preemptive strike, if it can serve as a preventive effect on the North Korean military from launching an attack. Enhancement of allied defense capability, including joint exercises, should continue until such a point when an adjustment or moderation may be warranted due to progress in nuclear negotiations.
These measures would be radical but constructive departures from President Obama’s failed policy of strategic patience. Washington must lead, instead of responding to provocations from Pyongyang. Take the first step and see what happens -- one step at a time. What’s your take?
Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.