Standstill on N. Korea policy
By Tong Kim
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Nobody has been talking about North Korea since the South became embroiled in a serious political crisis that is severely undermining the authority and competency of President Park Geun-hye. This crisis was triggered by an influence-peddling scandal involving her longtime personal confidant, Choi Soon-sil, now in custody accused of “abuse of power and attempted fraud.”
Choi’s alleged collaborator, Ahn Jong-beom, former senior presidential secretary for policy coordination, reportedly with the president’s instruction, helped collect over $70 million from business conglomerates to fund two cultural and sports foundations set up with Choi’s involvement. He is also being investigated by prosecutors.
Choi is known to have revised or edited presidential speeches before delivery and had access to presidential talking points for Blue House staff meetings beforehand. Choi is also suspected of having influenced the appointment of cabinet ministers and President Park’s North Korea policy, including Park’s decision to close the Gaeseong Industrial Complex.
Even if President Park survives the public outcry for her to step down or the calls for her impeachment, her presidential role will likely be reduced to foreign policy areas, leaving domestic policy _ including the economy and social affairs _ to a neutral prime minister, who would be asked to form a bipartisan cabinet.
Park’s desperate efforts to turn the situation around, including the nomination of a new prime minister and the replacement of the Blue House chief of staff and some senior secretaries, have backfired, mainly because she did not consult the leaders of the National Assembly on either side of the aisle. Opposition parties are determined not to hold a confirmation hearing for the new prime minister nominee, without which there would be no prime minister.
Most people who voted for Park have now turned against her. Recent polls show Park’s support plummeting to 14 percent. Her Saenuri Party is keeping its distance. The conservative news outlets, which used to be her allies, now wage uninhibited attacks against her, holding her accountable for the constitutional crisis that she created by incorrect judgment and her ties with Choi.
Choi’s father, who the President met decades ago, was a dubious sect leader who married six times and changed his name seven times. Some even questioned whether Park was influenced by shaman spells cast by Choi.
Whatever happens or whatever she does, her lame-duck presidency will not be able to recover from the grave damage it has suffered from what is called “Choi Soon-sil gate.” Her remaining time in office is little over a year.
Since the eruption of the volatile political crisis, prospects for the next presidential election are getting more complicated. Soon-to-retire U.N. secretary-general Ban Ki-moon’s potential as the ruling party’s candidate has been much talked about. His support has decreased significantly in polls, along with Park and her party. Potential opposition candidates, including Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-su, are too busy watching how the investigation of the scandal develops to affect their candidacies.
In the meantime, South Korea’s policy on North Korea has come to a standstill. No officials of the agencies concerned _ defense, unification, intelligence or the presidential security team _ have been saying anything or doing anything about North Korea for more than two weeks now.
In the United States, there were a couple of interesting developments in the second half of October. First, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper voiced his view on Oct. 25 at the Council of Foreign Relations that denuclearization of North Korea is “a lost cause” and "the best we could probably hope for is some sort of a cap," meaning the containment of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal through negotiations.
“They are under siege and they are very paranoid,” Clapper said. “So the notion of giving up their nuclear capability, whatever it is, is a nonstarter with them." The North Korean regime views the nuclear program as "their ticket to survival.”
However, the director of national intelligence was not reflecting any change in the Obama administration policy _ that is to pursue the verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through six-party talks, as confirmed by John Kirby, the state department’s spokesperson, while Clapper’s comment was a realistic assessment of the North Korean nuclear issue.
As intelligence chief, his job is to render an accurate assessment and he is good at that. Although it is not clear whether Clapper made recommendations to the president along the lines of his assessment, if President Barack Obama does not heed his comment, the next president should seriously consider his view.
Secondly, a “Track 2” meeting between DPRK officials and former officials of the U.S. administrations in Kuala Lumpur was a meaningful event, providing the next president with the most recent update on the DPRK’s position on its nuclear program and its relationship with the United States.
The meeting was attended by DPRK Vice Foreign Minister Han Sung-ryol with Pyongyang’s deputy ambassador to the U.N., Jang Il-hun, and former U.S. senior officials including Robert Gallucci, who negotiated the 1994 Agreed Framework, Joe DeTrani, who was director of the counter proliferation center at the office of National Intelligence, and Leon Sigal, a private North Korea specialist.
According to Gallucci, both sides expressed their mutual concerns _ North Korean nuclear and missile programs versus U.S. hostile policy _ and sought to find flexibility to move forward after the transition of power in Washington. The U.S. team is writing up a report on the meeting to give to a transition team after the election.
South Korea should come back, despite its internal political turmoil, to deal with the serious North Korean issue. What’s your take?
Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.