How would President Trump hit Korea?
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By Chang Se-moon
Probability is very high that Trump will be elected as President of the United States, with the main support coming from the ignored majority of low to middle income white Americans. This makes Trump’s view on foreign policy that much more important to Korea’s policy makers. Trump’s view on Korean security has been expressed several times.
Trump suggested that in Korea, “the U.S. military would be withdrawn from their shores, with nuclear weapons replacing them.” (CNN.com, March 31, 2016) There are currently 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea. Trump repeated this view of asking Korea, Japan and Saudi Arabia to develop own nuclear weapons on several occasions, including one interview with New York Times late in March 2016.
Trump’s view is a historical reversal in that “Every president since Harry Truman has tried to stop other nations from going nuclear—no exceptions. We did not encourage Israel to get nuclear weapons, or France, or even the United Kingdom, which worked with America on the Manhattan Project and helped invent the nuclear bomb.” (Politico.comn, March 30, 2016)
Trump also said “he would charge those governments for the American presence. …We protect everybody and we don't get reimbursement.” (
, April 28, 2016) It is not clear whether he means to keep the U.S. troops in these countries if additional costs are assumed by these countries. It is also not clear whether he will continue to push for development of nuclear weapons even when additional costs are assumed by these countries.
Briefly, stated, Trumpwants to increase Korea’s share of expenses for the U.S. military presence in Korea, and sounds as if he wants Korea to arm itself with nuclear weapons as a long-term solution.
How will Trump’s view affect Korea’s national defense against aggressive actions by North Korea? My answer is simple. The impact depends on how Korea prepares for likely implementation of his view when Trump is elected as President.
In essence, Korea can, and must, take advantage of Trump’s view relating to Korea as a golden opportunity to develop its own security strategies.
One possibility is that being a good negotiator as he proclaims himself to be, Trump may simply want to increase Korea’s share of the U.S. military expenses in Korea. It is highly unlikely that Trump will actually want to remove the U.S. military presence from Korea in view of the increasing military and political influence of China in the East and Southeast Asian region. Assuming that Korea simply accommodates this possible change in cost sharing, everything will remain as is, including the continuing threat from the North.
The other possibility is for Korea to be pro-active and try to take advantage of the opportunity presented by Trump, rather than criticizinghim for his view. Clear to everyone are several facts that leaders in Korea will have to take into consideration in making decisions.
First of all, Korea has technology to develop cutting edge nuclear weapons quickly. Secondly, the very technology to develop nuclear weapons will also allow Korea to develop cutting edge anti-missile defensive technologies that can shoot down any and all of North Korean missiles. Thirdly, development of nuclear weapons by Korea will prompt Japan to develop their own nuclear weapons. Lastly, China would be totally opposed to development of nuclear weapons by Korea and Japan.
Rather than criticizing Trump, Korea may announcethat it would not develop at this time, but prepare for development of nuclear and anti-nuclear weapons. While seriouslyand feverishly working on these weapons, Korea may ask China, as well as the U.S., to strongly intervene in North Korean affairs to abandon their nuclear programs as a condition for Korea to abandon its own nuclear programs.
In view of North Korea’s progress made in developing short-range missiles that can carry nuclear weapons, Trump’s view may well providea timely diplomatic cover for Korea to really improve its defensive posture and to put heavy pressure for North Korea to negotiate.
When the opponent is as vicious and sneaky as leaders of North Korea, who made complete fools out of Bill Clinton and Kim Dae-jung as well as all of Kim Dae-jung’s successors before Park Geunjye, Korea has to negotiate from the position of strength without which North Korea will clearly not give in.
By the way, so far as national security issues are concerned, there should never be opposing party or parties separately from the incumbent presidential policy. Everyone has to unite. I am aware that to be a popular politician in Korea, you have to criticize President. On security issues, however, everyone in Korea must unite and support President. Trump did create a golden opportunity for Korea to make a giant step forward on national defense against threats from mad leaders of North Korea. Be proactive by taking advantage of the opportunity. Korea will be a loser if it fails to adjust to changing times.
Chang Se-moon is the director of the Gulf Coast Center for Impact Studies. Write to him at: changsemoon@yahoo.com.