Cracks opening in North Korea
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By Tong Kim
As information is tightly controlled in North Korea, we are often attracted to speculation about what is happening in the secretive state. Many stories that emerge, but not all them, have turned out to be untrue.
Last week Seoul’s major Korean language dailies again published a couple of unconfirmed, but curiosity arousing, news stories related to the North Korean regime. One was about a slush fund manager for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who allegedly fled to Russia with $5 million.
The Joongang Ilbo published the story based on an unidentified “informed source,” adding that the defector was looking for a political asylum in a third country. Soon afterwards, Reuters and AFP rewrote the story, attributing the Joongang Ilbo as the source. But they also reported that the Korean government authorities, including the National Intelligence Service, have said they were not aware of the authenticity of the news reports.
Some defectors from the North quickly pointed out that the report was a sign of instability and that more trouble is coming for Kim Jong-un, arguing that he still has not consolidated his power base. If true, this story is bad news for Kim Jong-un. In the South, there are still two contending views with respect to the stability of the monolithic ruling system that Kim Jong-un inherited from his father Kim Jong-il a few years ago.
The other story of the week was more confusing: it was about a secret visit by U.S. officials to Pyongyang in mid-August by military aircraft, only two days prior to the beginning of this year’s Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise. The timing of this story coincided with the announcement of an early completion of the UFG exercise by one day.
The truthfulness of this story was “confirmed” by some newspapers, while discredited by other equally respected media in Seoul. It is an unfortunate practice for the South Korean language media to report unconfirmed stories when it comes to news or rumors about the closed society of the North.
The second story triggered more speculation about what issues may have been discussed in a possible secret meeting between North Korea and the U.S. ― including changes in their attitudes toward each other. Most reports speculated that the trip was to negotiate a release of three American detainees in the North, including Kenneth Bae, a Korean-American evangelist now serving a 10-year prison term on allegations of committing “hostile acts” against North Korea.
If this trip had really taken place, the most likely topic would have been the humanitarian issue of the American detainees, given the intransigent positions of both Washington and Pyongyang regarding political and security issues. However, no American detainees have been released. In other words, if this secret contact had occurred, Pyongyang had turned down an American appeal to secure their release.
Yet, if this trip had happened and even if the mission had failed, the mere fact that the North had allowed U.S. officials to travel to Pyongyang by military aircraft has a positive element. One of the most effective ways to influence the North to move toward a positive direction is engagement, not sanctions or punishment. Pyongyang has maintained a consistent position to engage and negotiate with Washington. But, it has also made clear that it would not beg for dialogue at the cost of losing face or do so under duress.
As the UFG exercise ended relatively quietly compared to previous exercises, it may provide a better opportunity for positive interactions between Seoul and Pyongyang. As usual, the North denounced the UFG exercise as a scheme to invade the North, but it suspended firing rockets and missiles during the UFG. Neither did the U.S. forces demonstrate familiar saber rattling with B-2 stealth bombers, B-52 strategic bombers and an aircraft carrier.
Despite Pyongyang’s militant rhetoric against the ROK-U.S. war games from its fear that such war games might restart war in Korea, there are cracks opening in the North. Kim Jong-un invites Western journalists and allows them to report on North Korea, although under escort and guidance. He is trying to improve relations with Japan. Last weekend, an international wrestling event was held in Pyongyang, arranged by a Japanese politician, Kanji Inoki.
The North also wants to improve relations with the South to create a stable security environment in which the North can concentrate more on economic development. Kim Jong-un appears comfortable and confident in his leadership role. The food situation has improved compared to the period of “an arduous march” of starvation in the 1990s. With a nuclear arsenal, he may believe that he did not need to spend more resource on the conventional military forces, other than on missile and rocket capabilities.
Pyongyang is sending its athletes to the Incheon Asian Games to start on Sept. 19, although it canceled a plan to dispatch over 300 cheerleaders. KCNA complained that Seoul was displeased with the cheerleaders, “treating them as a political propaganda tool.” Seoul’s unification ministry has denied this. The cheerleaders may have some negative psychological impact on the South. However, they will also have an opportunity to witness the vibrant, free society of prosperity and affluence in the South.
It seems to be high time for the two Koreas to start seriously engaging with each other to discus not just humanitarian issues and joint projects for social, cultural, environmental and economic fields, but also the political and security agenda as preferred by the North Koreans as well. What’s your take?
The author is a visiting scholar at the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University, a visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies and an ICAS fellow in the United States.