ed Political parties to gain little from NLL dispute
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By Lee Chang-sup
The latest Gallup poll shows that ideological disputes have pulled down approval ratings of political parties. The approval rating for the conservative governing Saenuri Party has fallen by 4 points to 37 percent in June. Similarly, the rating for the liberal opposition Democratic Party was down by 1 point to 18 percent. About 41 percent of the people identify themselves as political independents. President Park Geun-hye has also seen her popularity fall six points to 54 percent last month.
The poll was taken after National Intelligence Service (NIS) Director Nam Jae-june released the partial transcripts of an alleged dialogue between former President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il during their summit in Pyongyang in 2007. The transcripts indicate that President Roh was “sympathetic” to the North’s claim that the northern limit line (NLL) bordering the two Koreas off the West Sea is unacceptable because it was only drawn unilaterally by the United Nations Command after a cease-fire between the two countries in 1953. However, the documents do not specifically state that Roh wanted to “give up” the sea border.
The transcripts immediately angered conservatives. Saenuri Party lawmakers berated Roh as a traitor and a North Korea sympathizer who had tried to sell South Korean territory. They criticized Roh for wanting to overstep the Constitution to redraw the national territory without consent from the people.
The NLL squabble has also been talk of the town at coffee shops, restaurants and offices, making the country sizzle in an unusually prematurely hot summer. Conservatives did not hesitate using expletives to demonize the late Roh. Conservatives use Roh’s controversial remarks to deepen bonds among themselves and put liberals on the defensive.
Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers are suspicious of the purpose and legality of the releasing of the documents. They say the NIS director has made the minutes public in an attempt to distract them from investigating the agency’s meddling in the presidential election last December in favor of then ruling party candidate Park Geun-hye. They also say the director has picked only part of the dialogue to give the impression that Roh gave up the NLL. They also claim the NIS director has broken the law because he prematurely declassified the summit document.
Rep. Moon Jae-in, who had served as chief of staff to the late Roh during the summit, tried to defend the late Roh. Moon has proposed that the National Assembly should vote to make the true transcripts, now kept at the National Archives of Korea (NAK), public. He pledged to retire from politics if the documents clearly state that Roh had given up the NLL.
Foreign observers including Henry Seggerman, manager of Korea International Investment Fund, the oldest hedge fund in Korea, say the NLL squabble is ridiculous. In fact, President Roh’s special peace and cooperation zone in the West Sea was never a secret. It was openly reported and posted online in 2007 in news outlets such as The Korea Times (see https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/11/120_11288.html). They say Koreans are digging up an old issue.
The NLL dispute has apparently embarrassed President Park’s secretaries. Conservative newspaper Chosun Ilbo quoted Seoul National University professor Kang Won-taik as saying that the governing Saenuri Party and the NIS have made a political mistake of opening the controversial document to the public ahead of President Park’s visit to China. “The NLL document has pitted conservatives against liberals and raised the question of whether President Park seeks politics of harmony or politics of division. In addition, the dispute has outshone President Park’s otherwise significant diplomatic achievements during her visit to China last week.
The Gallup poll result shows people interpret the NIS documents differently from what the conservative party and the NIS director want them to believe. Fifty-three percent of the respondents say the transcripts do not convince them that Roh gave up the NLL, while only 24 percent say they were convinced. Up to 45 percent blamed the NIS for publicizing the unsolicited documents, higher than 35 percent who believe otherwise. About 43 percent backed Roh’s dovish statement to the late Kim, higher than 30 percent who blamed Roh for supporting the North.
Henry Seggerman says that political parties often show decreases in popularity between elections, adding the poll result is not necessarily because of the NLL squabble: “Releasing the transcript does not increase the seriousness of the disclosure. The NLL was drawn one-sidedly by U.N. Command at the end of the Korean War, and North Korea did not sign off on it. It defies the basic 12-mile international maritime norm. The North may be bellicose and threatening, but its argument against the NLL is based on normal sovereign considerations. History tells us that boundary adjustments are common in the world. In the aftermath of the North’s recent threats, it would be unwise to negotiate any adjustment of the NLL now. However, it is quite sensible to consider it a negotiating chip for some future, friendlier discussion between Koreas.”
The poll outcome is warning to political parties: The conservative Saenuri Party would gain little from its red-baiting, while the liberal opposition Democratic Party would not be able to expand its support base if its party line on North Korea surprises the ordinary people.
Lee Chang-sup is the executive managing director of The Korea Times. Contact him at editorial@ktimes.co.kr.