China's influence at work
.jpg?w=728)
By Tong Kim
Chinese president Xi Jinping’s meeting last Friday with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s envoy may revive hope for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through the six-party talks, which has become a further, distant goal, as the North has been vowing to keep its nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, this development provides a welcome shifting point from tense confrontation to diplomatic dialogue, especially between Pyongyang on one hand and Washington and Seoul on the other.
It was to the credit of China’s influence that special envoy Choe Ryong-hae, director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People’s Army, accepted China’s advice to work with relevant countries to resolve disputes through dialogue. After presenting Kim Jong-un’s handwritten letter to the Chinese president, Choe said, “The DPRK sincerely wishes to create a peaceful external environment to develop the economy and improve the people’s livelihood.” According to Xinhua News Agency, he did not mention Pyongyang’s dual course of nuclear development and economic improvement, which was adopted by the Korea Workers Party’s central committee in March.
The Chinese leader reaffirmed China’s firm stance on denuclearization, stressing that it must be achieved through the six-party talks. Xi also reiterated the familiar Chinese call on other countries to maintain calm and restraint to “defuse the tension and to keep the peace and stability of Northeast Asia.” The significance of Beijing’s commitment to denuclearization is noted at a time when the international community has lost confidence in the utility of denuclearization talks.
China has increased its pressure on the North since Pyongyang launched a satellite rocket in December and conducted a third nuclear test in February. Beijing’s relationship with Pyongyang has been strained as China participated in the passage and implementation of U.N. sanctions against the North. During the period of March and April when North Korea, reacting to the U.N. resolution and the combined United States – South Korea military exercises, carried out a campaign of bellicose threats, Pyongyang declined to receive a visit by Chinese high-level officials. After the North fired six newly developed multiple launch rockets in mid May, Beijing undertook a stricter implementation of the U.N. sanctions.
Washington and Seoul maintain that they will engage Pyongyang only when North Korea lives up to its commitment and international obligations. The allies do not believe the North will give up its nuclear weapons. They both rely on China’s influence to change Pyongyang, as they don’t have any positive influence on the North, only pressure and threats. The two allies keep reinforcing a joint deterrent against provocations and say they will not accept a nuclear North Korea.
On April 17, Secretary of State John Kerry told the Congress “the U.S. does not have direct influence with North Korea, other than military threats,” while “China has advantage.” He even said, “Without China, North Korea would collapse.” As Kelly said, the key is to work with China. Upon his inauguration, President Xi Jinping said China would play its role of a responsible power in the international arena. Recently, Beijing has shown its displeasure with its unruly North Korean ally and leaned toward a more balanced approach to the Korean Peninsula, without giving up on North Korea.
Xi and Obama will meet early next month in San Francisco. If they agree to take practical steps to restart multilateral talks for denuclearization, it could contribute to peace and stability on the peninsula. Later in June, President Park Geun-hye will make a state visit to China. Given that the recent United States - South Korea summit this month did not provide new momentum for Pyongyang to respond to Seoul’s call for talks, Park’s China visit may find a new breakthrough to the North Korean issue.
Seoul’s long-term strategic interest in peace and unification will be best served by a good, cooperative U.S.-China relationship, rather than by the U.S. policy of rebalancing in Asia. Park’s challenge will be to explain the ever-strengthening United States - South Korea alliance, which China sees as a remnant of the Cold War. Park may want to explain that the alliance’s main purpose is to deter war, which coincides with China’s position, and that it is not to contain China or to work against China’s interest.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinjo Abe’s dispatch of his advisor Isao Iijima to Pyongyang on May 14 may have stirred up a distraction to the trilateral denuclearization coordination between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. Abe also said he would meet with the North Korean leader if that would be necessary to resolve the issue of Japanese abductees. It is disturbing Japan did not inform Seoul or Washington of Iijima’s visit. Japan has not announced the result of its envoy’s visit to Pyongyang. Yet, it is encouraging to see Pyongyang is getting back to diplomacy, secret or public.
Before restarting denuclearization talks, perhaps the most urgent issue is to resume the operation of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, which has been closed for almost two months. The joint industrial park has served economic and security interests for both sides. Pyongyang’s envoy Choe may have asked for China’s additional economic aid during his visit. Once the Gaeseong park is fully operational again, the North will be assured of $90 million a year to help its economy. If the two sides take a pragmatic approach, instead of playing a blame game, there may be a good chance of success. What’s your take?
The writer is a research professor at the Illmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and a visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies. He is also an ICAS fellow. Reach him at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.