Rising threat of attack from North Korea
By Jay Kim
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U.S. Ambassador to Korea Sung Kim said at the Millennium Forum of the Korea Economic Daily on April 2 that if North Korea was ready to refrain from provocations and fulfill its promises and obligations, the U.S. was ready to talk with its leader Kim Jong-un.
Those words are in line with a proposal for conditional bilateral talks between North Korea and the U.S., a position that has been repeatedly expressed by high-level government officials of the U.S. (including President Obama), and a position that even the Republican Party does not oppose. However, questions remain over whether or not North Korea will accept this conditional talk proposal.
Though the North wants unconditional direct talks with the U.S., it will respond only if Washington reaches out its hand first. Meanwhile, the U.S. will naturally be very cautious to propose talks with Pyongyang, because such talks might give the impression that it has yielded to North Korea’s threats that it will attack the U.S. mainland and burn South Korea to the ground. The Korean press recently reported that North Korea would not touch the Gaeseong Industrial Complex for economic reasons.
These reports were regarded as an insult, and North Korea blocked the entry of South Korean workers into Gaeseong. But the reaction from people in the South show no signs of fear of war maybe because it was already the third time the North blocked entry to Gaeseong. In fact, public opinion in the U.S. also does not show any sign of unrest from the threat of missile attacks from North Korea. Instead, people laugh at such a threat, calling it as the same old music, only louder this time.
Such a reaction makes the so-called North Korea experts in Washington concerned about the possibility that it might make the North more restless and that Kim, a young man just 30 years old, might really start a war based entirely on receiving bad advice from old generals.
They point out that, even though not an all-out war, North Korea might attempt provocation by attacking along the South Korean coast line, using mini-submarines, shooting at the South Korean military in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), launching a cyber attack on South Korea’s online infrastructure, or attempting to assassinate a high-level South Korean government official. Furthermore, some voiced concerns about the possible chaos caused by 150,000 North Korean Special Forces infiltrating the South through the DMZ.
There was also a report in the U.S. press that a preemptive attack jointly by the U.S. and South Korea forces on major military bases or nuclear facilities in North Korea should also be considered. Military experts in the U.S. predict that, in the event of a war, about 3.5 million North Koreans will flee to China and about 2.5 million to South Korea, and protecting them will be virtually impossible.
Many experts predict that, over the cries of starving North Korean soldiers and refugees the war will be ended within five days by B-52 bombers and the world’s most accurate B-2 stealth bombers. According to analysts, however, the first two or three days might also see Seoul severely damaged. Since the U.S. knows this, I believe they conveyed through its ambassador to South Korea, Obama’s willingness to talk with North Korea, even though it responded to the North’s threat by deploying state-of-the-art weapons.
It remains to be seen how North Korea, which wants direct talks with the U.S., will react to such a proposal, but I expect that Kim will also try to find a solution through bilateral dialogue instead of a war that would bring demise to all. Fidel Castro also urged Kim, as a friend to North Korea, to stop provocation. He said that, as North Korea had already shown its technical and scientific achievements, it should avoid a war, since a nuclear war will devastate either side on the Korean Peninsula.
The U.N. Security Council passed Resolution 2094 unanimously. This is the strongest sanction against North Korea, which makes it difficult for the country to endure any longer. The end of North Korea is getting near. I hope that North Korea will realize how dangerous a game a war is, and that the U.S. and North Korea will hold bilateral talks soon to remove the current tension.
Jay Kim is a former U.S. congressman. He serves as chairman of the Kim Chang Joon US-Korea Foundation. For more information, visit Kim’s website at www.jayckim.com.