I am now the chief editorial writer of The Korea Times. I also worked as the managing editor of the newspaper for 26 months from April 2018. Before that my stints included Politics Desk editor, Business Desk editor, City Desk editor and Culture Desk editor. As a journalist of The Korea Times, the most influential English newspaper of Korea, I have been committed to promoting 'international justice' beyond the social justice pursued by vernacular papers. My career includes working as a visiting scholar in Britain's Cambridge University from 2006-07.
Ahn Cheol-soo's dilemma
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By Shim Jae-yun
All eyes are now fixed on the possible unification of the liberal candidates with less than 50 days left before the presidential election. The possible single candidacy has been one of the most significant factors that will determine the nation’s next president alongside possible TV debates and voter turnout.
Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic United Party made an official proposal Tuesday to independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo to kick off the negotiations to speed up the widely-speculated alliance formulation. In response, Ahn’s side virtually acknowledged the need for the coalition.
Ahn has adroitly been postponing merger talks, citing the need to expedite much-needed political reform rather than sticking to the single candidacy. He plans to come up with a package of pledges on Nov. 10 and said he would never engage in any merger talks until then. This means he wants to maintain an upper hand over Moon in any future negotiations, banking on the possibility of his planned pledges announcement fetching him additional support.
The brinkmanship tactic may help Ahn attain what he wants in future talks. He is also attempting to not give Moon time for a possible primary to pick a single opposition candidate as he sees a slim chance of winning if that happens. But there is also a negative aspect as this may give the impression that Ahn is too obsessed with consolidating his ground, whereas Moon is being coerced into yielding too much.
This is similar to merger talks ahead of the 2002 presidential election between then opposition candidate Roh Moo-hyun and virtual independent Chung Mong-joon, then vice president of FIFA. Like Moon, Roh at that time pressed Chung into a merger, making many compromises in the process. Back then, he lagged behind Chung in various opinion polls but managed to clinch the single candidacy mainly thanks to support from party members and the party’s pan-national apparatus.
Taking a lesson from that case, Ahn is unlikely to join the DUP under any circumstance, simply because his chances of winning a primary are so slim. Ahn is apparently mulling the device adopted by then-independent Park Won-soon in the 2011 Seoul mayoral election against then-DUP candidate Rep. Park Young-sun. The civic activist-turned politician Park never entered the DUP to avoid a primary where his chances of success were extremely low, though he later joined the party after winning the mayoral election.
Ahn’s possible defeat in a primary means he’s fading from the political scene. This is the reason why his camp has not raised the possibility of creating a new party after the presidential election comprising both liberal and conservative forces. Though Ahn may fail in the coming presidential poll, he may continue to harbor presidential ambitions in 2017 and beyond. Among other reasons, he is just 50.
Many compare the current situation to the one in 1987 when then-opposition candidates Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung failed to create a single candidacy only to be defeated by then-ruling party candidate Roh Tae-woo. Despite their initial failure both Kims managed to rise to become president in 1992 and 1997, respectively.
The failure in candidate unification, which triggered strong criticism, was inevitable given the fierce rivalry between them and their unswerving presidential ambition coupled with regional antagonism between the Southeastern Gyeongsang and Southwestern Jeolla Provinces.
But the present situation is different. First, both Ahn and Moon seem to have no such fervent presidential desires as seen in the two Kims. Their visions are similar in many ways and of course they have no personal rivalry or grudges against each other. Given this, many see a good chance of a single candidacy despite the dragged-out process. Former President Roh and Chung managed to unify their candidacy in late November just before the presidential election. What matters is how Ahn will deal with the move toward a single candidacy despite the knotty problems which intensify his dilemma.